JOIN US TO LOOK AHEAD FOR 2025• THE ECONOMY, AMERICA'S ROLE IN THE WORLD, AND COUNTRIES TO WATCH.

THAT'S NEXT• ON IVORY TOWER.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ HAPPY NEW YEAR.

I'M BARBARA FOUGHT, FROM SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY.

HERE TO TALK ABOUT THE NEWS OF THE WEEK ARE -- LUKE PERRY FROM UTICA UNIVERSITY ANIRBAN ACHARYA, FROM LE MOYNE COLLEGE CHAD SPARBER, FROM COLGATE UNIVERSITY, AND BEN BAUGHMAN FROM GANNON UNIVERSITY.

TONIGHT'S SHOW IS A LOOK AHEAD IN 2025.

BUT PLEASE KNOW THAT WE ARE RECORDING THIS SHOW TWO WEEKS EARLY, SO IF SOME NEWS HAS OVERTAKEN WHAT WE SAY, YOU'LL UNDERSTAND.

LET'S START WITH ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR MANY IN THIS NEW YEAR - THE ECONOMY.

TWO-THIRDS OF THE PUBLIC RECENTLY RATED THE ECONOMY AS "POOR".

HOWEVER, THIS SAME A.P.

NATIONAL OPINION RESEARCH CENTER POLL, SHOWS THAT 69% OF REPUBLICANS ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE ECONOMY WILL IMPROVE THIS YEAR.

CHAD, TARIFFS HAVE BEEN A BIG THING IN RELATION TO THE ECONOMY.

HOW MUCH DO YOU EXPECT TRUMP TO CARRY THESE TARIFFS OUT?

>> THE BIG THING TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT TRUMP'S GOALS ARE UNACHIEVABLE.

THEY'RE CONTRADICTORY.

LIKE HE WANTS TO JUMP UP AND DOWN WHILE HOLDING STILL.

A DEFINITIONAL I AM POSSIBILITY.

IT'S COMPLICATED.

ONE OF THE THINGS HE WANTS TO DO IS ENCOURAGE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INTO THE UNITED STATES, BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS A THING CALLED THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IDENTITY THAT SHOWS THE TRADE BALANCE AND THE NET INFLOWS OF CAPITAL ARE EQUAL AND OPPOSITE FORCES AND THAT'S NOT EVEN ECONOMIC THEORY.

IT IS A MATHEMATICAL REALITY.

AN IDENTITY.

NOBEL LAUREATES PAUL KRUGMAN WROTE AN INTERESTING SUBSTACK PIECE A POST ON THIS THIS WEEK.

I DON'T NORMALLY ENDORSE HIS VIEWS.

HE IS TOO LEFT FOR ME, BUT ON THIS PARTICULAR TOPIC, HE IS UNEQUIVOCALLY CORRECT.

YOU CAN'T DO THIS.

>> CAN'T DO THE TARIFFS.

>> YOU CAN'T HAVE AN INCREASE IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND DECREASE THE TRADE DEFICIT, WHICH ARE HIS GOALS.

>> THANKS FOR THE CLARIFICATION.

ANIRBAN, HOW DO YOU SEE THE ECONOMY?

>> I LIKE THAT YOU PUT IT OUT.

ACCOUNTING IDENTITY.

HOW DO YOU DO THAT, NATIONAL SAVINGS AND NET CAPITAL INFLOW HAVE TO MATCH.

SO I HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THIS.

ECONOMY I JUST DON'T SEE IT JUST IN TERMS OF UNEMPLOYMENT OR INFLATION: I'M INTERESTED IN INEQUALITY AND HOW AMERICANS SUFFER FROM DAY TO DAY DUE TO HEALTHCARE AND OTHER REASONS.

I'M LESS INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE ECONOMY WHEN IT IS RULED BY OLIGARCHS.

THAT MOST OF THEM HAVE NO, YOU KNOW,EXPERIENCE IN GOVERNMENT.

>> YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT OL OLIGARCHS IN THIS COUNTRY OR WORLDWIDE.

>> IN THIS COUNTRY, THE UNITED STATES.

>> OLIGARCHIC ADMINISTRATION THAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW OF BILLIONAIRES.

HOW THEY THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, MASSIVE TAX CUTS WOULD HAPPEN, I'M SURE.

THERE WILL BE RECORD DEPORTATIONS, I DON'T KNOW.

IF THE BUDGET GETS PASSED, HEALTHCARE COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO DELAY AND DENY HEALTHCARE AND CAUSE UNTOLD MISERY TO MILLIONS OF AMERICANS.

WOULD THAT CHANGE?

I DOUBT IT.

INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IS THE WORST, RIGHT?

SINCE THE 1970s, WOULD IT BECOME BETTER?

I DOUBT IT.

BUT MASSIVE TAX CUTS AND RECORD DEPORTATIONS, I DON'T KNOW.

IT WILL SCRAMBLE A LOT OF ISSUES IN THE UNITED STATES, YOU FLOW YOU KNOW, I DON'T SEE A VERY POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF WORKING CLASS AMERICANS.

>> I THINK SOME OF THE CHALLENGE HERE IS THAT TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE A CLEAR VISION FOR ECONOMIC POLICY.

AS WE STARTED HE CLEARLY CARES ABOUT TARIFFS BUT WHEN I ASSESS HIM AS A POLITICIAN AND POLITICAL LEADER, HE IS MORE REACTIONARY IS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

HE IS INHERITING THE BEST ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF ANY INCOMING PRESIDENT THIS COMING CENTURY BUT HOW HIS ECONOMIC LEGACY IS DEFINED IS REACTING TO DIFFERENT TWISTS AND TURNS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND HOW WELL HE IS ABLE TO NAVIGATE THOSE.

>> CHAT, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE BREAD AND BUTTER ISSUESES FOR THE LOCAL MIDDLE AMERICAN FOLKS OUT THERE.

WHAT IS THE ECONOMY GOING TO BE LIKE FOR THIS YEAR?

>> I DON'T KNOW.

I THINK MORE ABOUT THE BIG PICTURE THINGS LIKE THE TRUMP POLICIES THAT HE HAS PROPOSED AND AGAIN IS THE INHERENT CONTRADICTIONS.

SO, FOR EXAMPLE, HE WANTS TO INCREASE TARIFFS, WHICH KAMALA HARRIS WAS CORRECT IN SAYING THAT'S A SALES TAX ON FOREIGN GOODS AND IT'S REGRESSIVE.

THAT'S A BREAD AND BUTTER ISSUE YOU CAN THINK ABOUT.

HE WANTS TO DEPORT 4.6% OF THE LABOR FORCE; PEOPLE WHO LARGELY SPECIALIZE IN MANUAL LABOR JOBS, INCLUDING AGRICULTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION.

>> AND THAT'S A BIG CONCERN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH DAIRY FARMERS.

>> IT'S NOT JUST-- YOU KNOW, YOU KNOW, WHEN IMMIGRANT WOMEN ARE SPECIALIZING IN CHILD AND HOME CARE KIND OF JOBS, THAT HELPS FACILITATE INCREASED LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF AMERICAN BORN WOMEN.

AND SO THAT WILL KIND OF GO AWAY.

AND HE WANTS TO DO ALL THIS WHILE LOWERING PRICES.

THAT'S NOT EVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

SO WHAT I THINK YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE ARE THINGS LIKE TARGETED TARIFFS TO TRY TO AND THREATS TO BARGAIN FOR THE THINGS THAT HE REALLY WANTS.

SO LIKE MEXICO, WE ARE GOING TO PUT TARIFFS ON YOU UNLESS YOU ACCEPT IMMIGRANTS THAT WE ARE DEPORTING RIGHT AWAY.

THAT'S HIS STRATEGY.

>> TRANSACTIONAL.

>> THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE POLITICIAN SAID A LOT OF STUFF.

TRUMP SAID A LOT OF STUFF, MADE A LOT OF PROMISES.

PERCEPTION IS REALITY.

HERE IS THE ISSUE.

COVID HAPPENED.

WE WERE GETTING SUPPORT CHECKS BECAUSE OF COVID.

THOSE STOPPED.

THEN CREDIT CARDS ENT UP, SO PEOPLE OWE MORE ON CREDIT CARDS.

THEY GO INTO GROCERY STORES, PAYING MORE AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, THEY BELIEVE THAT WE ARE NOT IN A GOOD PLACE ECONOMICALLY.

BUT THEN TRUMP GETS ELECTED AND THERE IS A BUMP ON WALL STREET SO IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE THAT FINALLY PLAYS OUT.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT PLAYED OUT TO ME BECAUSE I'M KNEE DEEP IN ELECTION RESEARCH AND THE ECONOMY IS THE ISSUE.

IT'S PARTISANSHIP DRIVING ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS.

REPUBLICANS IN FEBRUARY ARE GOING TO SAY THE ECONOMY IS DOING GREAT WHEN TRUMP IS IN OFFICE FOR LIKE ONE WEEK AND HASN'T BEEN ABLE DO ANYTHING.

SO IT'S REALLY RATHER THAN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS DRIVING PARTISAN VIEWPOINTS, PARTISANSHIP IS DRIVING ECONOMIC IMPRESSIONS IN A LOT OF WAYS.

>> I THINK THAT THAT GLOW OF TRUMP WILL GO AWAY, BECAUSE IF HE DOES WHAT HE WANTS TO DO, INFLATION WILL RISE AND THAT WILL UNDERMINE HIS CREDIBILITY.

>> WELL, AS WE START THE YEAR, I'M WONDERING WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE WORLD'S ORDER.

PRESIDENT BIDEN SAID HE DID A LOT TO REINSTATE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONSHIPS DURING HIS TERM.

PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN ISOLATIONIST.

ARE WE STILL THE LEADER OF THE WORLD?

WHERE ARE WE?

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT U.S.

LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD AS WE START THE NEW YEAR?

>> I MEAN, YOU KNOW, U.S.

LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD, I THINK IS IN A PROBLEMATIC SITUATION BECAUSE THE VERY INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS THAT THE UNITED STATES HELPED BROKER INTO CREATING THIS KIND OF WORLD ORDER AFTER SECOND WORLD WAR, IT SEEMS TO BE BREAKING THOSE PROMISES.

IT SEEMS TO BE WALKING AWAY FROM THOSE, RIGHT?

SO I'LL GIVE YOU A COUPLE EXAMPLES.

ONE IN TRADE, RIGHT SINCE-- IT'S NOT ABOUT REPUBLICANS OR DEMOCRATS, THERE IS NO PERSON IN THE WTO BECAUSE AMERICA IS LOSING THE CASES TO CHINA SO THEY WANT TO WITHDRAW FROM WTO.

>> WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION.

>> WE ARE SEEING WHAT IS HAPPENING REGARDING THE GENOCIDE IN ISRAEL, LIKE?

I.C.C.

PUT OUT ARREST WARRANTS AND THE UNITED STATES WANT TO EQUIVOCATE ABOUT THAT.

WE ARE SENDING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF EQUIPMENT.

SO YOU LOOK AT THE WORLD, WHEN PEOPLE SAY UNITED STATES IS A FORCE OF GOOD.

PEOPLE ARE LAUGHING RIGHT NOW.

WE HAVE 800 MILITARY BASES AROUND THE WORLD.

WE NOW CREATE THIS BOOGIEMAN OF CHINA.

WE HAVE THIS FOREVER WAR, $2.9 TRILLION ON TOTAL OF U.S. COSTS OF WAR OF IRAQ AND SYRIA, $8 TRILLION TOTAL IN U.S. POST-9/11 WAR SPENDING.

THIS NEEDS TO STOP.

U.S. COMES OUT AS A WAR MONGERING NATION THAT IS WILLING TO UPHOLD GENOCIDE AND SCRAMBLE THE WORLD ORDER THAT IT WONDERFULLY HELPED CREATE.

WITH LYNDON AND OTHER ALLIES, I FEEL DESPONDENT TO SAY THE LEAST.

>> ARE YOU AS DESPONDENT?

>> YES, IT DRIVES ME CRAZY.

WHAT ARE WE OFFERING THE WORLD?

TO AFN ANIRBAN'S POINT, IT IS NOT FREEDOM, DEMOCRACY OR OPPORTUNITY.

THESE ARE THE THINGS THAT HELPED DEFINE AMERICA'S GREATNESS.

NOW BEE HAVE ON BOTH PARTIES OLD DATED LEADERS THAT HAVEN'T REALLY BEEN ABLE TO INSPIRE AND MOTIVATE AND LEAD THE COUNTRY IN A DIRECTION THE REST EFFORT WORLD WANTS TO FOLLOW.

SO INSTEAD WE ARE OFFERING THE WORLD GUNS AND MONEY AND THAT'S NOT ENOUGH.

AND I WANT TO SHAKE AMERICANS GENTLY, AND POINT OUT TO THEM, AS ANIRBAN REFERENCED THAT WE CREATED THE WORLD ORDER.

AND YES, THERE ARE SOME GREATER GOOD IN IT BUT THERE IS A LOT OF AMERICAN SELF INTEREST IN TERMS OF HOW THAT'S ALL CREATED SO THE MORE WE WALK AWAY PRODUCE THAT, THE MORE WE ARE UNDERMINING OUR ABILITY TO MAINTAIN OUR LEVEL OF POWER AND INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD.

I GET IT COSTS A LOT OF MONEY AND AMERICANS DON'T LIKE IT BUT LET'S TAKE A STEP BACK AT THE BIG PICTURE.

IT HAS WORKED FOR US AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK UNLESS WE BREAK IT.

>> AMEN TO OUR SELF INTEREST ISSUE.

WE NEED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF CONVINCING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT GLOBAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ARE THE SAME THING.

I THINK ABOUT UKRAINE AND HOW IT WAS ONCE OF THE WORLD'S THIRD LARGEST NUCLEAR POWER UNDER THE BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM IN 1994 WHEN THEY GAVE UP THEIR NUKES IN EXCOMPLAINING FOR GUARANTEE FROM THE U.S., U.K. AND RUSSIA FOR THEIR SECURITY.

AND SO IF WE FAIL THEM NOW, WE CREATE AN INCENTIVE STRUCTURE AND CREDIBILITY PROBLEM THAT INCENTIVIZES ROGUE STATES TO BUILD UP THEIR OWN NUCLEAR ARSENALS AND THAT'S NOT GOOD FOR GLOBAL OR U.S. SECURITY.

>> TO CHAD'S POINT, WE ARE ALMOST THREE YEARS INTO THIS WAR.

WE HAVE FAILED THEM.

WE HAVE ULTIMATELY FAILED THEM.

IT HAS TO BE A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT ACROSS NATIONS WHENEVER THERE ARE PROBLEMS LIKE A WAR, ANOTHER COUNTRY INVADING ANOTHER COUNTRY IN 2024, FIVE, THIS IS RIDICULOUS.

SO SHOULD WE POLICE THE WORLD BY OURSELVES?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

BUT WE SHOULD HAVE COLLABORATIVE PARTNERSHIPS AND BE GOING-- GOING TOWARDS THE PROBLEMS THAT WAY.

>> AND ONE THING THAT IS PERSONAL TO ME.

ONE OF THE BEAUTIFUL THINGS THAT I ENJOYED COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES WAS FREE SPEECH.

MY ABILITY TO CRITICIZE THE GOVERNMENT WITHOUT ANYBODY KNOCKING AT THE DOOR, WITHOUT PEOPLE TRYING TO HECKLE ME AS THEY'VE DONE IN INDIA AND THAT WE ARE ALSO SEEING ERODED NOW.

LIKE THESE LAWSUITS AGAINST COMPANIES, YOU KNOW, ABOUT MOVING BOOKS FROM LIBRARIES, POLICING WHAT YOU CAN SAY AND NOT SAY AND THIS FEAR, DES MOINES REGISTER BEING SUED.

THIS IS FEARFUL TO ME.

I THINK I HOLD THOSE PRINCIPLES OF THE UNITED STATES FREE SPEECH SO DEAR TO MY HEART AND ONE OF THE REASONS I LEFT INDIA AND NOW I'M FEARFUL THAT IS HAPPENING HERE ALSO.

>> YOU ALL ARE MUCH MORE NEGATIVE THAN I THOUGHT.

LUKE, WHAT IS THE U.S. GOOD AT IN THE WORLD?

>> WELL...

NOTHING COMES TO MIND... >> COME ON.

>> COME ON.

>> I MENTION THE AMERICAN VALUES THAT GO BACK TO THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE WHICH I TAKE TO HEART.

AND MEAN A LOT TO ME NOT ONLY AS AN EDUCATOR BUT AMERICAN CITIZEN AND WE HAVE NEVER LIVED UP TO THOSE IDEALS FULLY BUT THEY HAVE BEEN INSPIRATIONAL IN TERMS OF PROGRESS IN AMERICA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WORD.

SO I WOULD SAY OUR POLITICAL VALUES ARE WHAT WE HAVE TO OFFER.

AND I WANT TO BE FAIR WHEN I CRITICIZE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

EVE ALL BEEN ABLE TO TRAVEL AROUND THE WORLD AND EXPERIENCE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND CULTURES.

MOST AMERICANS HAVEN'T.

SO I DO THINK WE NEED TO CREATE MORE EDUCATIONAL TUNS FOR PEOPLE TO EXPAND THEIR WORLD VIEW AND UNDERSTAND THE GLOBAL ERA WE LIVE IN.

>> AND THE ANSWER, THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE.

I HAVE A BRILLIANT STUDENT WHO WROTE A BRILLIANT PAPER ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN SUDAN AND COMPETING INTERESTS BETWEEN EGYPT, ETHIOPIA, SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, AFRICA AND THE WEAPONS THEY USE TO FUND THE CIVIL WAR THERE.

IT IS A LESSON OF WHAT HAPPENS IN A POWER VACUUM WHEN THE U.S. GETS OUT OF ITS RESPONSIBILITY OF-- WHEN WE ABDICATE OUR DUTIES TO THE DETRIMENT.

WORLD.

THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THE U.S. IS INFALLIBLE BUT IT IS REGARDS TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT I THINK MADELINE ALBRIGHT WAS CORRECT WHEN SHE SAID THAT THE U.S. IS THE WORLD'S INDISPENSABLE NATION WILLING TO USE FORCE TO SECURE PEACE.

SHE WAS CLOSER TO BEING RIGHT THAN TRUMP WAS, EVEN RECOGNIZING OUR FLAWS.

>> MADELINE ALBRIGHT ALSO SAID A PRICE TO PAY, 50,000 BABIES KILLED IN IRAQ BECAUSE OF OUR SANCTIONS, SHE STOOD BY IT SAYING YEAH, KILLING BABIES IS FINE.

SO MADELINE ALBRIGHT IS TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE ON THAT.

>> I MEAN THE BOTTOM LINE IS, WE ARE ALL HUMAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENTS PEERMT-- THE DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENT THAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST COUPLE HUNDRED OF YEARS HAVE DONE GOOD IN THE WORLD AND TAKEN DIFFERENT SHAPES BUT WHEN IT'S NOT IN THE SHAPE OF HAVING FREEDOM AND FREEDOM OF SPEECH, THAT IS NOT IN A GOOD PLACE FOR ANYBODY IN THE GLOBE, INCLUDING US.

>> MILITARILY, WE ARE PRETTY STRONG STILL, RIGHT?

>> STRONGEST IN THE WORLD.

WE SPEND MORE THAN THE NEXT SIX COUNTRIES COMBINED.

>> AND OUR CULTURAL INFLUENCE, I THINK ALSO.

>> SOFT POWER, AMERICAN SOFT POWER IS GREAT.

I GREW UP WATCHING HOLLY WOOD FILMS AND LOVED IT AND THE KIND OF CULTURE IT SHOWED, BUT YEAH, A LOT OF POSITIVE THINGS, I SUPPOSE.

>> LET'S MOVE ON AND LOOK AT OTHER PLACES AROUND THE WORLD.

I'VE ASKED THE PANEL TO EACH PICK A COUNTRY THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE WATCHING THIS YEAR --- PERHAPS BECAUSE IT'S A HOT SPOT, SHOWS GROWING IMPORTANCE OR HAS A UNIQUE SITUATION.

LUKE, LET'S START WITH YOURS.

>> AMAZON AND BRAZIL.

IT IS A TERRITORY THAT ENCOMPASSES NINE BRAZILIAN STATES, LARGER THAN THE SIZE OF PORTUGAL, VITAL TO THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND IT'S ALSO PROTECTED LAND FOR INDIGENOUS PEOPLE BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN RECENT YEARS, WE HAVE SEEN MAJOR INTERNATIONAL GANGS, PARTICULARLY THE PCC INVADE THE AMAZON WITH EXTREMELY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PEOPLE THERE.

>> WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS THERE?

>> WELL, SO IF YOU HAVE SPENT ANY TIME IN THE JUNGLE, LIKE THE AMAZON, WHICH I WAS IN THE JUNGLE NOT TOO LONG AGO, NOT THE AMAZON, WATERWAYS ARE REALLY IMPORTANT.

THESE GANG MEMBERS HAVE ESCAPED THE LAW BY CONTROLLING AND MILITARIZING THE WATERWAYS.

AND IT'S BEEN HORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE FOR THE INDIGENOUS PEOPLE BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN THREATENED, MURDERED, RAPED, MALARIA HAS BEEN SPREAD, FAMINE.

AND WHAT THIS GANG AND THEIR-- AND AGAIN THEY HAVE A BILLION DOLLARS IN DRUG REVENUE.

THEY HAVE 42,000 SOLDIERS THAT HAVE INFILTRATED THIS TERRITORY AND NOW THEIR GOLD MINING ILLEGALLY AND DEFORESTING THE AMAZON TO MAKE MONEY WHICH HAS GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES AS WELL AS IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE INDIGENOUS PEOPLE THAT LIVE THERE BECAUSE MERCURY POISONS THE WATER AND RUINS THE LAND.

>> WE'LL WATCH BRAZIL.

YOUR COUNTRY TO WATCH?

>> INDIA.

>> THE LARGEST COUNTRY AND MORE THAN HALF OF THE POPULATION IS UNDER 25.

MODIA IS PROBLEMATIC BUT INDIA HAS GROWN UNDER HIS LEADERSHIP.

HIGHWAY SYSTEM IS 50% LARGER THAN 10 YEARS AGO.

TRAIN SPEEDS INCREASED 50% IN THE LAST TWO YEARS.

HAS A DIGITAL CURRENCY PAYMENT SYSTEM NOW WHICH HAS HELPED CURTAIL INFORMAL AND CORRUPT CASH ONLY SYSTEMS.

IT HAS CHALLENGES AS WELL BUT I FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING ITS POTENTIAL AS AN ALLY BOTH IN NATIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC TIES TO THE U.S. AND THAT'S WHY I'M TRAVELING THERE IN MARCH AND EXCITE EXCITED TO SEE WHAT I CAN LEARN.

>> THE U.S., WE TALKED ABOUT A LOT OF CHALLENGES WE V. CHAD, WHAT ARE SOME CHALLENGES THAT INDIA HAS?

>> THE MODI PARTY IS A PLACE TO START.

DANGEROUS AUTOCRAT, TOO PROTECTIONIST AND FEMALE LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE IS TOO LOW.

A LOT OF THE GROWTH WILL HAVE TO COME FROM SERVICES NOT MANUFACTURING.

BUT REALLY IF THEY HAVE LIKE AN ECONOMIC SHIFT TOWARD LIBERALISM AND DEEPER POLITICAL COMMITMENT TO THE WEST, CAN IT REALLY RISE IN POWER AND BECOME A HEDGE MONIC PLAYER.

>> MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT 35%.

AND YOU KNOW ONE THING THAT WE FORGET IS THAT THE LARGE PART OF THE INDIA LABOR FORCE IS INFORMAL.

3% IS FORMAL, MEANING THEY'RE PROTECTED BY MODERN JOB INCENTIVES LIKE PAID HOLIDAY AND PENSIONS AND, YOU KNOW, MEDICAL CARE.

97% OF THE LABOR FORCE DOES NOT HAVE ANY OF THAT, RIGHT?

THERE IS NO LABOR PROTECTIONS SO IT'S A LARGELY INFORMAL ECONOMY IN THE SERVICE SECTOR.

SO THAT'S THE YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND THAT'S WHY YOU SEE ALL THE SCAM COMPANIES LIKE SCAMMING AMERICANS ARE ALL IN INDIA, RIGHT BECAUSE THE YOUTH DOESN'T HAVE MONEY.

THEY DON'T HAVE JOBS.

THAT'S A BIG CHALLENGE FOR INDIA.

>> WHILE YOU ARE, LET'S TALK ABOUT INDIA'S NEIGHBOR BANGLADESH.

>> BANGLADESH IS A VERY INTERESTING COUNTRY.

IT WAS FORMED AS EAST AND WEST.

SO IT WAS CALLED EAST PAKISTAN BEFORE 1971.

IT WAS A STRANGE ARRANGEMENT THAT PAKISTAN ON THE WEST AND EAST PAKISTAN ON THE EAST WITH INDIA IN THE MIDDLE WOULD BE THE SAME COUNTRY.

AND INEVITABLY THERE WAS AN INDEPENDENCE REVOLT MOVEMENT IN 1971.

A LOT OF THINGS HAPPENED AFTER THAT.

YOU KNOW, THERE WERE TWO POLITICAL PARTIES THAT KIND OF ALTERNATED WITH EACH OTHER, KIND OF BECAME CORRUPT AND THEN RECENTLY THIS YEAR WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE ARMY LEAGUE, THE PREMIER, THE PRIME MINISTER WAS OVERTHROWN.

FLED TO INDIA AND THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS CORRUPTION, NEPOTISM BUT ALSO IT WAS SEEN TO BE A SECULAR PARTY, RIGHT?

A LARGE PART OF BANGLADESH YOUTH ARE SECULARLY PROGRESSIVE.

THEY DON'T WANT RELIGIOUS ASPECTS BAKED INTO THE BANGLADESH CONSTITUTION AND THEY WANT IT SECULAR AND SOCIALIST SO THERE IS A RADICAL MUSLIM RIGHT WING MOVEMENT THAT WANTS TO HIJACK THESE TWO PARTIES.

AT PRESIDENT, A CARE TAKER GOVERNMENT AND WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT ELECTION.

BANGLADESH HAS SHOWN TREMENDOUS GROWTH.

IT WAS CALLED THE PAJAMA REPUBLIC FOR A REASON, BECAUSE IT CREATED 40% OF THE WORLD CLOTHING.

SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO BANGLADESH.

VERY PROMISING COUNTRY.

>> A PROMISING COUNTRY.

WE'LL DEEP WATCH.

AND BEN, WHAT COUNTRY ARE YOU WATCHING?

>> RUSSIA.

IT HAS BEEN INCREMENTAL BUT IT HAS BEEN CONTINUED TO ESCALATE THE WEAPONS THAT ARE BEING UTILIZED ON THE BATTLEFIELD INCLUDING AN INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC WEAPON USED JUST LAST MONTH THAT IS TYPICALLY OR WOULD BE USED TO DELIVER NUCLEAR WAR HEADS.

THEY HAD EVERYTHING BUT THAT ON THE MISSILES THEY SHOT INTO UKRAINE N. ADDITION TO THAT, WHEN THEY INVADED UKRAINE, OVER 500 RUSSIAN SPIES WERE EVICTED FROM THE COUNTRIES THAT THEY WERE IN.

SO WHAT THEY ARE TURNED TO IS PAYING MERCENARIES; FOR EXAMPLE, THEY PAID A UKRAINE PERSON TO SET UP CAMERAS ON THE RAILROAD TRACKS SO THEY COULD WATCH AND MONITOR WHAT WEAPONS WERE COMING IN FROM THE WEST.

>> SO THE WEAPONS IS A CONCERN AND ALSO ARE YOU A LITTLE FEARFUL ABOUT NUCLEAR.

>> YES, ABSOLUTELY.

AND I WOULD SAY WITHOUT SCARING EVERYBODY, I'M TALKING ABOUT TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS WHICH ARE STILL TERRIBLE BUT THEY'RE SMALLER IN SIZE THAN WHAT WE THINK OF WHEN WE TALK ABOUT NUCLEAR.

BUT THAT COULD BE A STARTING POINT AND TIPPING POINT WHICH IS WHY I THINK PUTIN HAS HELD OFF ON USING THAT THE.

BUT AS THINGS DON'T GO HIS WAY, IF THAT HAPPENS, NOT ONLY IS HE ASKING NORTH KOREA TO BE INVOLVED AND HAVING TROOPS FROM NORTH KOREA FIGHT WITH HIS TROOPS, THIS IS SHOWING MORE UNPREDICTABLE COMPONENTS TO IT, WHICH MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS.

>> UNPREDICTABLE.

IT'S TIME FOR OUR LAST SEGMENT.

AND I'VE ASKED THE PANEL TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR THIS FIRST SHOW OF THE YEAR.

SOMETHING FOR YOUR F, SOMETHING, SOMEBODY THAT YOU ARE TIRED OF, YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE ANYMORE.

YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH.

LUKE, WHO IS THAT FOR YOU?

>> WELL, I'VE HAD ENOUGH SCHOOL SHOOTINGS.

AS WE ALL HAVE.

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT I REFUSE TO ACCEPT THAT THIS IS NORMAL AND ACCEPTABLE.

SO THIS YEAR WE HAVE HAD 83 SCHOOL SHOOTINGS, 38 MURDERS.

AND 115 PEOPLE INJURED, MOSTLY CHILDREN, HARDENING SCHOOLS AND INCREASED RESOURCE OFFICERS LIKE POLICE OFFICERS FOR THE SCHOOLS ALONE IS NOT THE REMEDY.

WE NEED TO THINK CREATIVELY ABOUT HOW TO MITIGATE THIS PROBLEM.

>> HOW ABOUT ANIRBAN, WHO DON'T YOU WANT?

>> I WANT ISRAEL'S ENDLESS GENOCIDE SLAUGHTER OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN AND IT'S OCCUPIED TERRITORIES BY AN ADMINISTRATION WANTED FOR ICC WAR CRIMES TO STOP AND TARGET THE KILLING OF JOURNALISTS THAT ISRAEL HAS BEEN DOING.

THE PROTECTION OF JOURNALISTS SAID THAT 14 IS JOURNALISTS AND MEDIA WORKERS WERE AMONG THE TENS AND THOUSANDS KILLED IN GAZA, ISRAEL, WEST BANK AND LEBANON.

THIS IS A PHENOMENON WORLDWIDE ATTACK AGAINST JOURNALISTS, YOU KNOW, AND THIS NEEDS TO STOP.

>> FOR SURE.

CHAD.

>> TAKING A MUCH LIGHTER TONE HERE.

SO I HOPE SOME OF YOU HAVE WATCHED THE CLASSIC SIMPSONS EPISODE ABOUT THE MONORAIL AND THAT'S SOMETHING I THINK ABOUT EVERY TIME I HEAR ABOUT THE SYRACUSE AQUARIUM.

IT'S ALREADY AN $85 MILLION BOONDOGGLE THREATENING TO GO TO 100.

I DEDICATE MY LIFE TO KILLING THAT FISH EXCEPT I KNOW HOW THINGS ENDED FOR CAPTAIN AHAB AND WOULD GET A HEART ATTACK THINKING ABOUT THE ALTERNATIVE USES FOR THAT MONEY.

I DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT IT ANYMORE.

>> AND BEN?

>> I AM SICK AND TIRED OF THE ELECTION POLLS AND.

[LAUGHTER] IT'S VISCERAL AND DECISIVE AND UGLY RHETORIC THAT HAS COME OUT OF THAT FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS.

SO I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO NEXT YEAR.

IN ADDITION TO THAT, WE HAD PEOPLE SHOOTING AT OUR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES.

NOT ONCE BUT BEE ALSO HAD ANOTHER PERSON WAITING ON A GOLF COURSE TO SHOOT AT HIM.

ON TOP OF THAT, THE MURDER OF THE C.E.O.

IN NEW YORK CITY JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN THIS AIRS, THAT JUST SHOWS THAT OUR SOCIETY IS HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION AND SPEAKS TO WHAT RICK WAS TALKING ABOUT WITH THE SCHOOL SHOOTINGS.

>> OKAY.

LUKE, ON THE POSITIVE SIDE.

WHO DO YOU WANT TO HEAR OR WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR MORE ABOUT?

>> A COMPLIMENT I GET CALLED RICK FOR SURE.

MORE PEOPLE GOING TO COLLEGE.

18-YEAR-OLD ENROLLMENT WAS DOWN 5% THIS YEAR.

NOT JUST THE DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE.

IT'S MORE PEOPLE CHOOSING NOT TO GO BECAUSE THEY'RE TELLING OR BEING TOLD THAT'S OKAY.

AND MAYBE IT IS FOR SOME BUT I DON'T THINK IT IS FOR MOST.

I ALMOST DIDN'T GO TO COLLEGE.

IT WAS LIFE CHANGING FOR ME.

MY GRANDPARENTS DIDN'T GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND I WAS THE FIRST IN MY FAMILY TO GET A Ph.D., AMERICAN GREATNESS BARBARA.

I WANT MORE PEOPLE TO GO TO COLLEGE TO BUILD THEIR MINDS, SKILLS, HELP DEMOCRACY, GET JOBS, GET PAID MORE.

>> ANIRBAN QUICKLY.

>> REMINDS ME OF ONE GOOD THING, THE AMERICAN GRADUATE SCHOOLS ARE STILL EXCELLENT COMPARED TO ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.

>> OKAY WE HAVE TO GO.

A TO IRELAND'S P.M. SIMON HARRIS WHO ACCUSED ISRAEL OPENLY FOR DISTRACTION POLITICS AND SUPPORTED PALESTINE.

THEY SAID WE VALUE HUMAN RIGHTS.

AS A CHILD OF SOUTH ASIA, WE STAND BY THE IRISH COMRADES.

THANK YOU.

>> CHAD.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT LEFT ME OPTIMISTIC IS UNIVERSITIES ARE CONTINUING TO REASSESS THEIR ROLE IN NATIONAL DISCOURSE, BE IT THROUGH INSTITUTIONAL NEUTRALITY, ACADEMIC FREEDOM OR INTELLECTUAL DIVERSITY.

DEVELOPMENTS OF THE WORLD HAVE FORCED UNIVERSITIES TO BE MORE INTROSPECTIVE ABOUT WHAT THEY CAN DO BETTER.

I'M HOPEFUL ON HOW THAT WILL UNFOLD AND MAYBE IT WILL HELP LUKE'S POINT AS WELL.

>> BEN?

>> MORE OF US HUMANIZING EACH OTHER AND WE ARE ALL SNOWFLAKES.

WE ARE ALL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE ARE SNOW >> WE WELCOME YOUR COMMENTS ON THIS SHOW--- OR YOUR SUGGESTIONS FOR TOPICS.

FEEL FREE TO WRITE US AT ANY OF THE ADDRESSES ON THE SCREEN.

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THANKS FOR WATCHING.

BE WELL AND GOOD NIGHT.