♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ WELCOME, AMERICA, TO BALANCING ACT!

THE SHOW THAT AIMS TO TAME THE POLITICAL CIRCUS OF TWO-PARTY POLITICS.

I'M JOHN KATKO...AND I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU: ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING, ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?

THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION IS GONNA DRIVE THE ELECTION RESULTS AND THIS WEEK'S SHOW.

IN THE CENTER RING...WE'LL HEAR FROM A LEADING EXPERT ON THE ECONOMY FROM CORNELL UNIVERSITY.

ON THE TRAPEZE...WE'LL LET OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS BATTLE IT OUT ON WHETHER THE ECONOMY HAS TRULY EXPERIENCED A "SOFT LANDING."

AND DID YOU KNOW, THOMAS JEFFERSON EXPERIENCED HIS OWN FINANCIAL TURMOIL?

BEFORE WE GET TO IT ALL, LET'S FIRST WALK THE TIGHTROPE.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ SO, IF YOU OWN STOCK, CHANCES ARE YOU'RE FEELING PRETTY GOOD THESE DAYS.

THE DOW JONES SOARED FROM ROUGHLY 32,000 DURING THE TRUMP YEARS TO AROUND 43,000 UNDER BIDEN.

NOW, WE HAD A PANDEMIC IN THE MIX, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE PERCENTAGE GAIN WAS HIGHER DURING TRUMP'S TERM.

BOTH ADMINISTRATIONS SAW A BOUNCE BACK AFTER THE PANDEMIC, WHICH IS GREAT NEWS FOR WALL STREET AND YOUR 401(K).

BUT WHAT ABOUT EVERYDAY LIFE?

ACCORDING TO GALLUP POLLS, MORE THAN HALF OF ADULTS LIST INFLATION AS THE TOP ISSUE IN THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

WHILE INFLATION RATES HAVE SUBSIDED, PRICES NEVER GOT THE MEMO.

FOR INSTANCE, THE AVERAGE PRICE OF BACON JUMPED 25 PERCENT IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS.

GROUND BEEF IS UP 32 PERCENT.

PERHAPS THAT'S WHY THE OBESITY RATE DROPPED BY 2 PERCENT OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS-THERE'S THE ICING ON THE CAKE!

SO TO SPEAK.

NOW LET'S TALK HOUSING.

THE AVERAGE RENT HAS SOARED NEARLY 30% SINCE 2020, CLIMBING FROM $1,473 A MONTH TO ALMOST $2000.

SO IT'S OKAY IF YOU STILL LIVE WITH YOUR PARENTS.

EVEN IF YOU'RE FIFTY.

WHILE INCOMES HAVE INCREASED, THEY HAVEN'T QUITE KEPT PACE WITH INFLATION.

HOWEVER, ON A MACROECONOMIC LEVEL, INDICATORS LIKE EMPLOYMENT RATES, GDP GROWTH, AND NEW JOBS CREATED, SUGGEST THE ECONOMY IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

DON'T BELIEVE ME?

LET'S HEAD TO THE CENTER RING AND WORK IT OUT.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ JOINING ME IN THE CENTER RING IS A TRUE NUMBERS GUY.

JUSTIN BLEOSCH IS ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT CORNELL UNIVERSITY WHO IS HERE TO HELP US LEARN MORE.

WELCOME PROFESSOR.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> THANKS FOR COMING ON THE SHOW.

LISTEN, WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER, IN FACT, AMERICA DID HAVE THAT SOFT LANDING EVERYONE HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT.

SO I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS.

>> YEAH, I THINK THE ANSWER IS MOSTLY YES.

SO WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT INFLATION, LET'S JUST BE CLEAR ON THE DEFINITION.

WHEN ECONOMISTS ARE TALKING ABOUT INFLATION WE TALK ABOUT PRICES RISING.

SO OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS PRICES HAVE RISEN A LOT.

THERE WAS INFLATION AND INFLATION HAS COME DOWN.

JUST BECAUSE INFLATION HAS COME DOWN DOESN'T MEAN THAT PRICES WILL GO DOWN.

PRICES HAVE RISEN BUT THE PRICE PACE GOING UP HAS SLOWED.

>> WITH THE PACE SLOWING, THE AVERAGE AMERICAN, THAT'S DIFFICULT.

WHAT NUMBERS CAN WE LOOK AT TO GET SOME HOPE THAT THINGS ARE GOING TO GET BETTER ON THE HORIZON?

>> SO INFLATION IS DOWN BELOW 3% AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE RIGHT NOW.

WHAT THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT THAT'S LESS THAN WAGE GROWTH WHICH IS 3 TO 4% A YEAR.

SO FOR MOST PEOPLE, FROM HERE ON OUT, YOU SHOULD EXPECT INCOMES TO GROW FASTER THAN PRICES.

>> I'M TRYING TO THINK AT IT FROM THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION.

THE NUMBERS HAS INDICATED THE ECONOMY IS COOLING OFF A WILLINGS BIT, WHICH IS GOOD FOR CONSUMERS BUT THE AVERAGE CONSUMER IS PAYING A HECK OF A LOT MORE.

SO THE QUESTION IS, DO YOU THINK THE PRICES ARE EVER GOING TO GO DOWN OR IS THAT JUST GOING TO LEVEL OFF?

>> THERE MIGHT BE SOME SECTIONS WHERE PRICES COULD GO DOWN, BUT ACTUALLY IN THE SECTORS WHERE YOU WOULD EXPECT IT, WE HAVE SEEN IT.

GAS PRICES HAVE COME DOWN, USED CAR PRICES HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.

BUT FOR THE MOST PART, NO, I MEAN WE ARE ON A LOWER GROWTH PATH BUT I WOULDN'T EXPECT PRICES TO COME BACK DOWN FROM HERE.

>> SO YOU ARE A NUMBERS GUY.

SO YOU LOOK AT THINGS ON PAPER AND YOU MAKE YOUR CONCLUSIONS AND THAT'S PERFECTLY UNDERSTANDABLE.

NOW TRY TO GIVE SOME COMFORT TO THE AVERAGE AMERICAN WHO IS TRYING TO MAKE ENDS MEET AND ARE JUST NOT SEEING IT.

SO WHAT HOPE CAN YOU GIVE THEM OR WHAT NUMBERS CAN YOU GIVE THEM SO THAT IT CAN START LOOKING AT THINGS AND SAY OKAY THERE IS SOME LIGHT COMING INTO THIS SITUATION FOR THEM?

>> YEAH, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE GENERAL MARKET IS PRETTY STRONG.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS 4.1% RIGHT NOW WHICH IS HISTORICALLY VERY LOW JOB OPENINGS IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

IT'S NOT LIKE IT WAS TWO YEARS AGO IN 2022, THE LABOR MARKET WAS REALLY TIGHT.

EMPLOYERS WERE VERY DESPERATE FOR WORKERS AND WERE OFFERING VERY HIGH SALARIES.

THAT, THOSE SALARY LEVELS ARE STILL THERE.

THEY'RE STILL HIGHER AND THE JOB MARKET ISN'T AS STRONG AS IT WAS TWO YEARS AGO BUT OVER THE COURSE OF HISTORY, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BEING NEAR 4% IS VERY LOW SO RELATIVE TERMS, A PRETTY GOOD TIME TO FIND A JOB.

>> SO NOW I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU WERE SAYING EARLIER THAT WAGE GROWTH IS GROWING AT A BETTER PACE NOW THAN INFLATION SO THEREFORE, YOU GET A SLIGHTLY MORE BANG FOR YOUR BUCK BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE ASK ME AND WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT A LOT THIS WEEK, IS THERE ANY SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY WHERE YOU SEE PRICES ACTUALLY POSSIBLY START GOING DOWN OTHER THAN FUEL?

YOU MENTIONED FUEL COSTS BUT FOR EXAMPLE, GROCERIES?

GROCERIES ARE STILL A LOT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE.

ANY CHANCE SOME SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY MIGHT START SEEING THE COSTS NOT JUST LEVEL OFF BUT START COMING DOWN?

>> NOT THAT I WOULD SEE.

I COULD SEE FOR FOOD IN PARTICULAR THEY COULD LEVEL OFF AND LEVEL OFF FOR A LONG TIME.

AND THEN SO AS PEOPLE'S INCOME RISE OVER TIME, FOOD WOULD GET RELATIVELY CHEAPER BUT I DON'T THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF SECTORS WHERE THERE IS DEPLAGUES LEFT.

>> DEFLATION LEFT.

>> WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, WHETHER IT BE HARRIS OR TRUMP DO TO POSITIVELY IMPACT THE ECONOMY?

AND IF YOU WANT TO, TELL US WHAT PROGRAMS THEY DID PROPOSED THAT YOU THINK WORK AND WHAT MIGHT NOT WORK?

>> I MEAN I THINK THERE IS A LONGER COST OF LIVING ISSUE.

AND I THINK IF YOU THINK ABOUT HOUSING, IF YOU THINK ABOUT CHILD CARE, THOSE ARE REALLY BIG CHUNKS OF PEOPLE'S BUDGETS.

HOUSING IS EXPENSIVE BECAUSE IT'S HARD TO BUILD AND CHILD CARE IS JUST SORT OF INHERENTLY EXPENSIVE.

IT TAKES A LOT OF TIME AND YOU NEED TO PAY PEOPLE WAGES TO DO THAT WORK.

SO I THINK PROGRAMS THAT COULD INCREASE SUPPLY OF HOUSING AND ALSO SUBSIDIZE CHILD CARE COULD GO A LONG WAY TO MAKING THINGS MORE AFFORDABLE.

>> OKAY, LET'S TAKE ONE PROGRAM FROM EACH OF THEM IN OUR TIME WE HAVE LEFT.

IF YOU CAN BRIEFLY COMMENT ON THEM.

HARRIS IS PROPOSING A $25,000 CREDIT FOR INDIVIDUAL TO BUY HOMES.

THAT THAT POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE HOUSING MARKET?

>> IT WOULD MAKE BUYING A HOUSE EASIER FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE HARDER IF YOU ARE SELLING A CURRENT HOUSE AND YOU ARE NOT A FIRST-TIME HOME BUYER.

IF YOU SUBSIDIZE DEMAND AND YOU DON'T CHANGE SUPPLY, THEN IT IS PROBABLY GOING TO PUSH UP PRICES.

I THINK WHAT IS ENCOURAGING IS THAT THE HARRIS TEAM SEEMS TO PAIR THIS WITH SUPPLY SIDE MEASURES.

THE CREDIT, I THINK THE EFFECTS WOULD BE SMALL BUT INCREASING THE SUPPLY OF HOUSING WOULD IMPACT THINGS MORE.

>> HOW ABOUT TRUMP'S, ONE OF HIS BIG PROPOSALS TO HAVE A TARIFF ON GODS IMPORTED INTO THE U.S. THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT BEFORE.

20% TARIFF AND I THINK HE WAS TALKING ABOUT, HOW WOULD THAT SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM IMPACT THE ECONOMY IF YOU COULD BRIEFLY TELL US?

>> SURE, IN THE SHORT RUN IT'S PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD.

TARIFF MAKES IMPORTED GOODS MORE EXPENSIVE.

I KNOW THE TRUMP TEAM HAS BEEN SAYING THAT THE PEOPLE WHO SELL IT WOULD PAY THE TAX.

THAT'S LARGELY NOT TRUE.

IT WOULD BE MORE EXPENSIVE FOR CONSUMERS.

IN THE LONG RUN, A TARIFF TEND TO MAKES CURRENCY APPRECIATE SO THE DOLLAR WOULD BE STRONGER WHICH WOULD MAKE OUR EXPORTS MORE EXPENSIVE.

SO IT WOULD MAKE LIFE HARDER FOR AMERICAN EXPORTERS.

BUT IT'S NOT OBVIOUS THAT IT WOULD BRING PRODUCTION HOME.

IT WOULD MORE LIKELY JUST MAKE IT SO THAT CURRENT PRODUCERS IN THE U.S. COULD CHARGE PRICES BECAUSE THEIR FOREIGN COMPETITORS ARE SUBJECT TO A TAX.

>> SO THERE IS SO MUCH MORE WE COULD TALK ABOUT, BUT LIKE SOFT LANDING IS, I GUESS BEAUTY IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER FROM AN ECONOMIST STANDPOINT, IT MAKES SENSE, THE AVERAGE WORKER, I THINK THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THAT.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT JUSTIN.

VERY HELPFUL AND HELP SET THE TABLE FOR A NICE DISCUSSION COMING UP.

THANKS SO MUCH.

>> GREAT, THANK YOU.

>> LET'S INVEST IN SOME KNOWLEDGE.

DID YOU KNOW THAT THOMAS JEFFERSON DIED OWING OVER $107,000?

THAT'S MORE THAN THREE MILLION IN TODAY'S DOLLARS!

HIS ESTATE, MONTICELLO, WAS BOTH A SOURCE OF PRIDE AND FINANCIAL STRAIN FOR THE FOUNDING FATHER.

IN FACT, HIS FAMILY EVEN HELD AN ESTATE SALE TO PAY OFF HIS DEBTS AFTER HIS DEATH-YES, YOU MIGHT HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME OF HIS FURNITURE FEATURED ON ANTIQUES ROADSHOW!

JEFFERSON WAS KNOWN FOR THROWING LAVISH PARTIES, AND HIS LAND SPECULATIONS OFTEN FELL FLAT.

WELL, YOU BUY A THIRD OF AMERICA FROM A FRENCH GUY, AND YOU START TO THINK YOU'RE THE NEXT BIG THING IN REAL ESTATE.

HE WASN'T.

FARMING, TOO, WAS AN UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF INCOME FOR HIM.

ON TOP OF THAT, HE INHERITED A LARGE DEBT FROM HIS FATHER-IN-LAW AND EXTENDED LOANS TO FRIENDS THAT FREQUENTLY WENT UNPAID.

JEFFERSON ALSO HAD A TASTE FOR EXPENSIVE CHOCOLATE AND BELIEVED THAT ONE DAY, AMERICANS WOULD PREFER HOT CHOCOLATE OVER COFFEE OR TEA.

THAT DIDN'T GO SO WELL EITHER.

LIKE MANY YOUNG HOMEOWNERS, JEFFERSON WAS IN DEBT HIS ENTIRE LIFE.

IT WASN'T UNTIL NEARLY FIFTY YEARS AFTER HIS DEATH THAT HIS GRANDSON, THOMAS JEFFERSON RANDOLPH, FINALLY RESOLVED THE FAMILY'S FINANCIAL TROUBLES.

SO, HERE'S THE BOTTOM LINE: THOMAS JEFFERSON A LAWYER, ARCHITECT, PLANTATION OWNER AND PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES FOR EIGHT YEARS-NEVER GOT OUT OF DEBT.

FOUNDING FATHERS, THEY REALLY ARE JUST LIKE US.

DO YOU THINK THOMAS JEFFERSON WOULD HAVE WORKED AT MCDONALDS?

AND NOW, YOU DO KNOW.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ A SOFT LANDING IS CERTAINLY DESIRABLE WHEN EXITING A TRAPEZE.

IT'S ALSO DESIRABLE FOR THE ECONOMY TO AVOID A RECESSION.

SO WHAT IS IT AND DID IT HAPPEN?

AND WHAT HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES IN A POST-COVID ECONOMY?

OUR NEXTS GUESTS WILL TAKE SWINGS AT THOSE QUESTIONS.

CHAD SPARBER IS W. BRADFORD CHAIR IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AT COLGATE UNIVERSITY AND HAS AN OPINION ON THE SOFT LANDING ARGUMENT.

EMILY EISNER IS AN ECONOMIST AT THE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE AND HOLDS A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE.

WELCOME TO YOU BOTH.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.

EMILY, LET'S START WITH YOU.

WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON THE SOFT LANDING ARGUMENT?

>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION CAME INTO THE OFFICE IN THE MIDST OF AN HISTORIC PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS AND ECONOMIC CRISIS.

THEY'VE DONE AN IMMENSE AMOUNT OF FISCAL POLICY TO ALLEVIATE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT WAS AROUND US THAT WE'VE SEEN INFLATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, BUT WE'VE REALLY SEEN INFLATION COME DOWN TO STABLE LEVELS OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.

AND WE ALSO SEE HISTORICALLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT AND THAT IS REALLY AMAZING.

THAT'S A SIGN THAT THEY'VE REALLY ACHIEVED THE SOFT LANDING THAT WE WERE ALL HOPING FOR.

>> CHAD, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE?

>> I THINK WE ARE PRETTY LUCKY THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE A MASSIVE INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT AS INFLATION CAME DOWN.

BUT I DON'T THINK IT'S THE RESULT OF THE BIDEN ERA POLICIES.

I THINK IF YOU GO BACK TO THE START OF HIS ADMINISTRATION AND THE $1.9 TRILLION AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN, THAT GAVE A 1400 STIMULUS CHECK, INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS AND IT EXPANDED THE CHILD TAX CREDITS.

IF YOU WANT TO CALL ANY OF THOSE EFFECTIVE, I WOULD SAY THAT THE CHILD TAX CREDITS WERE AND THAT THEY ARE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING CHILD POVERTY.

BUT THE STIMULUS WASN'T NECESSARY AND IT WAS INFLATIONARY AND IT WAS IS SOMETHING THAT CLINTON'S FORMER TREASURY SECULARRY SOMERS WARNED US ABOUT AT THE TIME.

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S SUNNY.

YES INTEREST RATES ARE STARTING TO GO DOWN A LITTLE BIT, SO AND WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION.

SO IN SOME RESPECTS, IT SEEMS LIKE WE GOT WHERE WE WANTED TO BE.

BUT IF YOU ASK THE AVERAGE PERSON ON THE STREET, ESPECIALLY THOSE BLUE COLLAR WORKERS AND FAMILIES STRUGGLING TO MAKE ENDS MEET, I'M NOT SURE THEY'RE FEELING IT.

HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THAT PHENOMENON?

IS IT MORE OF A PSYCHOLOGICAL HANGOVER FROM WHERE WE WERE.

THE PRICES ARE STILL HIGH FOR FOOD AND THINGS LIKE THAT, RIGHT?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I MEAN YOU KNOW, THEY CALL ECONOMICS ADDIS BYES MALSCIENCE FOR A REASON.

WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE LOW INFLATION BUT THE REALITY IS THAT PRICES WENT UP AND PEOPLE ARE STILL FEELING THE BURDEN OF THOSE HIGH PRICES.

WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF AN AFFORDABILITY CRISIS AND THAT'S SOMETHING THAT ECONOMISTS AND POLICYMAKERS ARE ALL TRYING TO WORK ON.

AT THE SAME TIME, THE REALITY IS THAT THE MACRO ECONOMY OF THE U.S. IS IN A REALLY REMARKABLE PLACE RELATIVE TO WHERE WE WERE JUST A COUPLE YEARS AGO.

THE FACT THAT INFLATION HAS STABILIZED, THE FACT THAT WE SEE TREMENDOUSLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND G.D.P.

IS GROWING.

WE ARE GROWING AT A FASTER RATE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD, THAT MIX OF SORT OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE AND IT'S AMAZING THAT WE HAVE ACHIEVED IT.

AND THERE ARE STILL THINGS WE NEED TO WORK OUT.

WE NEED TO SOLVE THE AFFORDABILITY PRICES AND BRING PRICES DOWN FOR FOLKS BUT WE'VE COME A LONG WAY.

>> CHAD,... >> I THINK YOU ARE RIGHT TO CALL IT A PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUE.

THE PRICES ARE 22% HIGHER NOW THAN THEY WERE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.

WHETHER YOU GO TO PRICE SHOPPER AND YOU SEE TWO LOAFS OF BREAD COST $8 INSTEAD OF $6.

IT'S AGGRAVATING.

THEY GET MAD AND THEY CLAIM TO WANT THE PRICES TO COME DOWN AND GO BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS.

BUT THE REALITY IS FOR THAT TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD BE A DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD BE EVEN MORE DESTABILIZING THAN WHERE WE CURRENTLY AT, SO IF WE ARE AT 2.5% INFLATION NOW, THAT'S JUST BARELY ABOVE WHAT THE FED TARGET IS, THAT'S NOT BAD.

BUT PEOPLE ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO THIS ANGER ABOUT HOW BAD INFLATION HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST FOUR YEARS.

>> AND I GUESS THAT'S WHAT I'M TRYING TO GET AT NOW.

I THINK YOU HAVE BOTH STAKED OUT YOUR POSITION.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE IS THE COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO OF YOU.

CHAD, YOU MENTIONED IT JUST NOW, COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO ARE WE BETTER OF THAN WE WERE?

>> YEAH, UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW AND INFLATION HAS IMPROVED QUITE A BIT SO COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO, SURE WE ARE BETTER OFF NOW.

>> EMILY, I TAKE IT YOU AGREE WITH THAT.

>> I DEFINITELY AGREE WITH THAT.

THERE IS A LOT OF COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO OF US.

WE MIGHT DISAGREE ABOUT SOME OF THE SPECIFICS OF THE FISCAL POLICY THAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS.

BUT I THINK THAT I DEFINITELY THINK WE ARE IN A BETTER PLACE THAN A YEAR AGO.

WE HAVE LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, LOW INFLATION AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEE, YOU KNOW, MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION INCREASING, HOME CONSTRUCTION INCREASING.

WE HAVE HIGH GROWTH LIKE THERE IS A LOT GOING FOR THE ECONOMY.

WE REALLY NEED TO FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY.

I DON'T THINK IT'S JUST A PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUE.

I DON'T WANT TO UNDERMINE THAT THERE ARE PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES.

WE HAVE ALL BEEN THROUGH A DEEP TRAUMA.

THE REALITY IS THAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH A HUGE UPHEAVAL IN OUR LIVES.

BUT THERE IS AN ECONOMIC ISSUE.

HOME PRICES HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY HISTORICALLY HIGH.

THE COST OF CARE, CHILD CARE, CARE FOR THE ELDERLY, HEALTHCARE, THESE THINGS ARE REAL ECONOMIC ISSUES AND WE NEED TO FOCUS ON THEM.

BUT I DON'T THINK WE NEED TO OVERLOOK HOW GOOD OF A PLACE WE ARE IN AND HOW FAR WE'VE COME.

>> I GUESS HERE IS THE INCENDIARY QUESTION FOR BOTH OF YOU.

WE HAVE A COUPLE MINUTES LEFT.

WHAT IMPACT IS THIS GOING TO HAVE ON THE ELECTION?

>> I THINK IT'S GOING TO HAVE A HUGE IMPACT.

I THINK THERE ARE TWO FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS.

IF INFLATION PEAKED AT 9% IN 21-22, HOW MUCH OF THAT INFLATION DO YOU THINK IS BIDEN-HARRIS FAULT.

IT'S NOT 0, IT'S NOT ALL OF IT.

IT'S SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.

IT'S PROBABLY MAYBE 2 TO 3 TO 4 PERCENTAGE POINTS WORTH.

THAT'S QUESTION NUMBER 1, HOW ANGRY ARE YOU ABOUT THAT.

THE SECOND IS WHAT DO YOU THINK HARRIS POLICIES ARE ABOUT REDUCING PRICES GOING FORWARD AND THERE IS WHERE SHE IS IN A WORLD OF HURT.

THE POLICIES OF HOME SUBSIDIES FOR NEW BUYERS.

THAT'S COUNTER PRODUCTIVE.

THAT WOULD MAKE HOUSE PRICES GO UP.

THE ISSUE ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO CONTROL GROCERY PRICES BY INSTITUTING PRICE CONTROLS AND THINGS, THAT'S TOTALLY INCONSISTENT WITH, YOU KNOW, EFFECTIVE ECONOMIC POLICY MAKING.

AND SO THOSE ARE NON SOLUTIONS TO WHAT I THINK ARE REAL PROBLEMS.

AND I THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE HER STRUGGLE MAKING A CASE TO AMERICAN VOTERS.

>> EMILY, WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT?

>> YEAH, I MEAN ACTUALLY I AGREEY TO A LARGE EXTENT.

I THINK THAT THE ECONOMIC LITERATURE RIGHT NOW, I WOULD SAY SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPLY SHOCKS HAVE PLAYED A LARGER ROLE THAN FISCAL POLICY INDUCING INFLATION.

TO THE EXTENT THAT PEOPLE ARE ANGRY AT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION THAT IS MISPLACED.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS DONE A REMARKABLE JOB SETTING UP THE ECONOMY FOR SUCCESS.

WITH WE LOOK AT OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, WE SEE HIGH INFLATION DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY SPENT WAY LESS AND THEIR ECONOMIES ARE WORSE.

THEY'RE STAGNATING WHILE WE ARE GROWING.

WE SHOULD CREDIT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH SETTING US UP FOR GROWTH AND COMING OUT OF THE COVID PANDEMIC STRONGLY.

AND, YOU KNOW, THE COST OF INFLATION IS HIGH.

IT'S PAINFUL BUT THEY'RE DOING WORK TO BRING IT DOWN AND I THINK THAT WE SHOULD FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE ECONOMY IS.

>> WITH THAT I WOULD DISAGREE WITH... >> WE COULD GO ON BUT ONE THING WE CAN AGREE ON IS THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE THE BIG ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN AND WE APPRECIATE BOTH OF YOUR PERSPECTIVES VERY MUCH.

AND LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

THANK YOU BOTH FOR A GREAT DISCUSSION.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH.

TIME FOR OUR WEEKLY TRIP TO OUR NATION'S CAPITAL!

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ WITH US NOW IS LAUREN MADDOX, SENIOR POLICY ADVISOR AT WORLD CLASS WASHINGTON LAW FIRM, HOLLAND AND KNIGHT, TO GIVE US THE SCOOP ON WHAT'S HAPPENING NEXT WEEK IN WASHINGTON.

WELCOME AGAIN LAUREN.

>> THANK YOU, GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

>> WAS COOKING THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON.

>> FOR START ERTS, THE TRAFFIC IS GOING TO BE A LOT LIGHTER.

YOU KNOW, IN THIS FINAL STRETCH BEFORE ELECTION DAY, THERE IS A LOT OF PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON.

THEY HEAD OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, THEY TAKE TIME OFF, THEY GO DOOR TO DO ARE ARE DOOR FOR THEIR FAVORITE CANDIDATES AND THOSE LEFT BEHIND ARE PREPPING FOR WHEN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS GET BACK TO TOWN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

DUE BACK NOVEMBER 12.

THEY HAVE A LONG LIST TO DOS.

THEY ARE GOING TO DO A DISASTER RELIEF SUPPLEMENTAL TO TAKE CARE OF THE COMMUNITIES DEVASTATED ABOUT IT HURRICANES.

THEY'RE ALSO GOING TO DO AN ANNUAL DEFENSE POLICY BILL.

THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THAT.

SO BOTH ITEMS SHOULD GET DONE ON A BIPARTISAN BASIS AND PRETTY QUICKLY.

THE OTHER THING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO IS CHOOSE LEADERS IN THEIR CAUCUSES FOR THE NEW CONGRESS.

AND THERE IS A LOT MORE DRAWM ON AT REPUBLICAN SIDE WITH REGARD TO THAT.

YOU'VE GOT MITCH McCONNELL, WHO IS EXITING HIS LEADERSHIP POST.

HE'S GOING TO STAY IN THE SENATE, SIMILAR TO NANCY PELOSI IN THE HOUSE WHO HAS A FEW MORE YEARS ON HIS TERM BUT A CONTEST FOR THAT POST.

CHUCK SCHUMER WILL STAY IN HIS POSITION AS DEMOCRATIC LEADER AND ON THE HOUSE SIDE, MIKE JOHNSON, WHO IS CELEBRATING HIS ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY AS SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE, IT DEPENDS ON THE ELECTION WHETHER OR NOT HE STAYS IN THAT POSITION.

IF THE REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE, IT'S LIKELY HE IS FINE.

IF THE DEMOCRATS ARE ABLE TO FLIP THE HOUSE, THAT MEANS THERE IS A CONTEST ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE AND SO, YOU KNOW, IT'S TO BE DETERMINED AT THIS POINT.

>> YEAH, I HAVE BEEN DOWN TO WASHINGTON MYSELF AND WITNESSED SOME OF THE FIGHTS TO TRY AND GET LEADERSHIP POSITIONS.

AND THEY CAN BE PRETTY UGLY BEHIND THE SCENES.

FROM A LEGISLATIVE STANDPOINT, WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO GET KICKED DOWN THE ROAD?

ANYTHING BUT THE DISASTER RELIEF BILL OR IS ANY BILLS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING DONE?

>> YEAH, SO GREAT QUESTION.

SO YOU STILL HAVE THE ANNUAL FUNDING BILLS THAT ARE NOT DONE YET.

THEY SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN THOSE DONE AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

THEY KICKED THE CAN UNTIL DECEMBER 20.

THEY HAVE TIME BUT AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION AND WHO IS IN CHARGE AND HOW THEY FINISH UP THESE FUNDING BILLS, WE'LL KNOW A LOT MORE IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

>> WELL, IT SOUNDS LIKE TYPICAL WASHINGTON WHERE IT'S ABOUT AS CLEAR AS MUD BUT WE THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR INSIGHTS AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE ELECTION.

SO THANKS AGAIN, LAUREN AND SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

NOW, LET'S LEAVE 'EM LAUGHIN'.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ WE'RE "CLOWNING AROUND" IN THE WORLD OF POLITICS AS WE WELCOME OUR RESIDENT CLOWN AND NATIONALLY RENOWNED COMEDIAN, MOODY MCCARTHY.

HEY MOODY!

>> CONGRESSMAN, GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

GRIET TO COME DOWN TO THE PBS STUDIOS AND THEN DO IT REMOTELY ANYWAY.

SO I FEEL LIKE I'M IN THE META VERSE HERE.

BUT IT'S BEEN A GREAT EPISODE.

A LOT OF TALK ABOUT ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO.

EVERY PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE THEY ASK, ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW.

AND I DIDN'T THINK I WOULD HEAR IT THIS TIME AROUND BECAUSE 2020 WAS A UNIQUELY DISASTROUS YEAR.

WE HAD A QUARANTINE.

NOW I KNOW YOU WERE IN WASHINGTON D.C. FIGHTING THE GOOD FIGHT, SPEAKING TRUTH TO POWER AND PROBABLY SLEEPING WITH ONE EYE OPEN.

>> INDEED.

>> WE ALL HAD OUR BATTLES.

MY DAUGHTERS WERE FOUR AND FIVE.

HERE IS MY 2020 TRYING TO STAY AWAKE DURING A ZOOM FIRST GRADE CLASS AND A ZOOM PRE-K CLASS.

AND A ZOOM PRE-K CLASS GOES ABOUT AS WELL AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IT TO GO.

BUT THAT'S A GREAT ADAGE, ARE YOU BETTER OFF?

I BELIEVE RONALD REAGAN CAME UP WITH THAT.

IT'S A SMART WAY TO TYKE AN INCUMBENT.

MOST VOTERS SKEW OLDER.

IF YOU ARE PAST THE AGE OF 50, YOU WERE BETTER OFF FOUR YEARS AGO THAN YOU ARE NOW.

HEY, MY NECK-- HOVER IS ELECTED THIS TIME, I'M GOING TO BE WORSE OFF FOUR YEARS FROM NOW UNLESS THEY ELECT PONCE de LEON.

NOW WE ARE IN THE HOME STRETCH, 11 DAYS AWAY FROM A CIVIL WAR.

EXCUSE ME, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

AND BOTH CANDIDATES ARE STILL TRYING TO APPEAL TO THE MIDDLE.

THESE UNDECIDED VOTERS, THERE IS A REAL PSYCHOLOGY THERE.

KAMALA HARRIS IS KIND OF AN INCUMBENT.

SHE WANTS TO TAKE CREDIT FOR THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE PAST THREE AND A HALF YEARS BUT SHE HAS TO DISTANCE HERSELF FROM THE UNPOPULAR ONES.

AND SOME PEOPLE HAVE BEEN UNHAPPY WITH HOW SHE HAS PHRASED HER ANSWER TO THIS BIG QUESTION.

BUT I THINK SHE FINALLY GOT THE ANSWER TO SOLVE IT ALL.

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YOU AND PRESIDENT BIDEN?

SHE HAD THIS TO SAY.

>> I HAVE A GLOCK.

>> HAVE YOU EVER FIRED IT?

>> YES.

OF COURSE I HAVE.

>> THAT'S HOW YOU GOT TO APPEAL TO MIDDLE AMERICA.

HEY, ENOUGH FOREIGN POLICY.

CLIMB.

WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO SHOOT SOMEBODY?

NOW ALL THIS GUN TALK, I THINK MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT TO TROLL PRESIDENT TRUMP BECAUSE AS A CANDIDATE IN 2016 HE VERY FAMOUSLY HAD THIS TO SAY.

>> THEY SAY I HAVE THE MOST LOYAL PEOPLE, WHERE COULD I STAND IN THE MIDDLE OF FIFTH AVENUE AND SHOOT SOMEBODY AND I WOULDN'T LOSE ANY VOTERS.

IT'S LIKE INCREDIBLE.

>> NOW HE HAS TO UPDATE THAT BECAUSE HE STILL HAS VERY LOYAL FOLLOWING BUT AS A CONVICTED FELON, HE HAS NO GUN ANYMORE SO HE HAS TO OUTSOURCE THE JOB TO KAMALA AND HER GLOCK OR HE IS GOING HAVE TO STRANGLE SOMEBODY ON FIFTH AVENUE.

ALWAYS WEIRD NEWS, THE GOLFER ARMED PALMER WAS SURPRISINGLY IN THE NEWS AND LET'S TAKE A LISTEN.

>> THIS IS A GUY THAT WAS ALL MAN, THIS MAN WAS STRONG AND TOUGH.

>> NOW HE PASSED AWAY EIGHT YEARS AGO BUT HE DID RELEASE A STATEMENT FROM THE GRAVE SAYING, PLEASE NO FACT CHECKING.

>> YEAH, THAT WAS GREAT, MOODY.

>> CONGRESSMAN GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

MY FINAL QUESTION TO THE PBS VIEWERS.

ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WERE THREE MINUTES AGO?

>> WE'LL LET THEM DETERMINE THAT AND I DON'T KNOW IF I WANT TO KNOW THE ANSWER.

>> ME EITHER.

>> THANKS SO MUCH, MOODY AND WE WILL SEE NEXT WEEK.

AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

REMEMBER IN THE CIRCUS THAT IS POLITICS, THERE IS ALWAYS A BALANCING ACT.

I'M JOHN KATKO.

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK AMERICA.