♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ JOHN: WELCOME AMERICA, TO BALANCING ACT!

THE SHOW THAT AIMS TO TAME THE POLITICAL CIRCUS OF TWO-PARTY POLITICS, I'M JOHN KATKO.

THIS WEEK WE'RE DIVING INTO THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICAN POLITICS.

IN THE CENTER RING, FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE NEWT GINGRICH REFLECTS ON THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.

ON THE TRAPEZE, TWO POLLSTERS TAKE A SWING AT HOW POLITICS AND ELECTIONS CAN HARNESS THE YOUNG VOTE.

AND "DID YOU KNOW": SOMETIMES IN A CAMPAIGN, "YOU SAY IT BEST, WHEN YOU SAY NOTHING AT ALL".

SO LET'S START BY BALANCING THINGS OUT ON THE TIGHTROPE.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ IN 1994, MANY VOTERS WERE FREE AGENTS LOOKING FOR A NEW CONTRACT.

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY PRESENTED THEM ONE JUST SIX WEEKS BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTION.

THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA-- CO-AUTHORED BY THEN-HOUSE MINORITY WHIP, NEWT GINGRICH-- PROMISED LOWER TAXES, WELFARE REFORM, AND A REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT, AMONG OTHER THINGS - AND VOTERS SIGNED ON, GIVING THE REPUBLICANS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 40 YEARS.

BUT DID THE CONTRACT LIVE UP TO ITS TERMS?

AND WERE THERE ANY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES?

THERE'S ONLY ONE WAY TO FIND OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE CENTER RING.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE CENTER RING.

♪ ♪ THE CENTER RING THIS WEEK IS THE FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE, NEWT GINGRICH.

HIS BOOK, MARCH TO THE MAJORITY IS OUT NOW.

MARCH TO THE MAJORITY TELLS THE STORY OF THE 16-YEAR CAMPAIGN TO WIN THE FIRST REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN 40 YEARS IN 1994 - AND HOW CONGRESSMAN GINGRICH ULTIMATELY BECAME THE 50 TH SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW, SPEAKER NEWT GINGRICH.

>> IT'S GREAT TO BE WITH YOU AND WITH OUR MUTUAL EXPERIENCES IN THE CONGRESS, WE OUGHT TO HAVE A GREAT CONVERSATION.

>> IT'S ALWAYS A GREAT CONVERSATION WITH YOU.

I CAN TELL YOU THAT MUCH.

I WANTED TO FOCUS ON THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.

FIRST OF ALL, CONGRATULATIONS, AS A FORMER MEMBER OF CONGRESS, I'M GETTING ALL THE EMAILS GOING BACK AND FORDS FROM THE FORTH FROM THE VARIOUS RETIRED MEMBERS TALKING ABOUT THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.

I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THAT AND HOW IT GOT STARTED.

WHAT WAS THE ORIGINAL INTENT FOR THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA?

>> FIRST OF ALL, WE STOOD ON REAGAN'S SHOULDER, THE FIRST CAPITOL TEPS STEPS EVENT WITH THE CONTRACT WAS SEPTEMBER 1980 WHEN REAGAN AGREED TO MEET WITH ALL THE CANDIDATES FOR THE HOUSE AND SENATE AND WE HAD A CONTRACT WITH FIVE IDEAS.

AND I HELPED ORGANIZE THAT.

SO WHEN WE GOT AROUND TO IT IN 1994, I KNEW THAT WE NEEDED A DOCUMENT THAT WAS POSITIVE AND THAT WOULDS SIMPLE.

SO THERE ARE ONLY 10 ITEMS IN THE CONTRACT.

AND THE REASON WAS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF CANDIDATES WHO HAD NEVER RUN BEFORE AND YOU COULDN'T GIVE THEM SOMETHING SO COMPLICATED THAT THEY COULDN'T REMEMBER IT.

AND FEIGNINGLY, YOU CAN'T COMMUNICATE VERY COMPLICATED THINGS IN A COUNTRY THIS SIZE AND THIS COMPLEX.

SO WE DEVELOPED A CONTRACT.

I GIVE DICK ARMY A LOT OF CREDIT FOR THE WORK THAT WENT INTO IT.

WE HAD LEGISLATION FOR EVERY SINGLE ITEM IN THE CONTRACT.

AND WHETHER WE GOT TOGETHER ON THE CAP TOLL STEPS IN SEPTEMBER, IT WAS A GREAT MOMENT.

WE HAD THE 30th ANNIVERSARY GATHERING OF MEMBERS WHO HAD BEEN THERE.

AND IT GAVE US A POSITIVE ANCHOR TO THE CAMPAIGN.

I WAS CONVINCED THAT IF WE JUST RAN AN ANTI-CLINTON CAMPAIGN, WE WOULD GET PROBABLY 25 SEATS.

BUT WE WOULD NEVER GET TO A MAJORITY.

BUT RUNNING A POSITIVE CAMPAIGN WITH A POSITIVE SET OF IDEAS FOR REFORM, WE WERE IN A POSITION, I THOUGHT, TO REALLY BE ABLE TO REACH OUT AND POTENTIALLY GAIN A MAJORITY AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.

>> AND I'LL TELL YOU, ONE OF THE GREAT ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF IT IS THAT YOU PUT THE HOUSE IN PLAY AND IT HAS BEEN PERMANENTLY IN PLAY EVER SINCE.

THAT IN AND OF ITSELF IN MY MIND IS SOMETHING THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT WHEN YOU HAVE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM, RIGHT?

SO IF YOU HAD TO PICK OUT ONE THING THAT YOU ARE MOST PROUD OF, OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT IT GAVE YOU THE MAJORITY AND PUT THE REPUBLICANS BACK IN PLAY ON A REGULAR BASIS.

WHAT IF AND OF ITSELF OF THE CONTRACT IS SOMETHING YOU ARE REALLY PROUD OF AND HAPPY TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH?

>> WELL, I MEAN THE BIGGEST ACCOMPLISHMENT, WITHOUT ANY DOUBT, WAS THE FACT THAT THIS IS THE ONLY TIME IN LITERALLY 100 YEARS, THAT YOU HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE BALANCED BUDGETS.

IT WAS A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT ENORMOUS CHANGE AND AN EXAMPLE OF A TEAMWORK TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE A LARGE GOAL.

WHEN I LEFT OFFICE, ALAN GREEN SPAN WHO WAS CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, GAVE A SPEECH IN WHICH HE SAID THEY WERE THINKING ABOUT HOW TO DEAL WITH THE MONEY SUPPLY WHEN, IN 2009, WE FINISHED PAYING OFF THE NATIONAL DEBT.

THAT'S THE MOMENTUM WE HAD BUILT UP THROUGH THE TIME I LEFT THE SPEAKERSHIP.

SO I WOULD SAY BALANCING THE FEDERAL BUDGET FOR FOUR STRAIGHT YEARS, CREATING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THEN WITH WELFARE REFORM, CREATING THE INCENTIVE TO LEAVE THE WELFARE SYSTEM AND GO OUT INTO THE MARKET AND BECOME A PERSON EARNING A LIVING, THOSE WERE THE THINGS THAT ARE PROBABLY THE GREATEST HISTORIC ACHIEVEMENTS OF THAT PERIOD.

>> ONE OF THE QUITE REMARKABLE THINGS ABOUT THAT IS THAT DID YOU THAT WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS IN THE WHITE HOUSE, RIGHT?

SO BILL CLINTON, A DEMOCRAT, WORKED WITH YOU TO BALANCE A BUDGET AND TO REFORM WELFARE.

THAT'S PRETTY REMARKABLE WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT.

AND I CAN'T IMAGINE SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING TODAY.

>> OH SURE.

LOOK, THE KEY TO IT-- AND THIS WAS SOMETHING THAT REALLY CAME TO ME WHEN WE HAD OUR 30th REUNION AND I LISTENED TO PEOPLE TALK FOR A WHILE.

WE REALLY STOOD IN REAGAN'S SHOULDER.

THERE IS A BOOK CALLED THE EDUCATION OF RONALD REAGAN, WHICH IS ABOUT REAGAN'S EIGHT YEARS AT GENERAL ELECTRIC.

AND REAGAN LEARNED AN PROACH TO PUBLIC OPINION AND AN APPROACH TO LEADERSHIP WHICH HE APPLIED VERY SYSTEMATICALLY WHILE HE WAS PRESIDENT AND BEFORE THAT WHEN HE WAS GOVERNOR.

I LEARNED IT FROM HIM AND IT'S BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE THAT LINCOLN HAD SAID, LINCOLN SAID AT ONE POINT, THAT WITH POPULAR SENTIMENT, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

WITHOUT POPULAR SENTIMENT, NOTHING IS POSSIBLE.

SO EVERYTHING WE DID STARTED WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

REAGAN HIMSELF SAID IN HIS FAREWELL ADDRESS IN 1989, THAT PEOPLE SAID THAT HE HAD WON GREAT VICTORIES BUT HE SAID THAT WASN'T TRUE.

THAT IT WAS YOU, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, WHO WON THOSE VICTORIES.

IT WAS YOUR PHONE CALLS.

IT WAS YOUR INVOLVEMENT.

IT WAS YOUR CONVERSATIONS.

AND I REALIZE THAT REAGAN HAD ALWAYS-- AND I HAD SERVED WITH HIM AS A CONGRESSMAN.

I REALIZE HE ALWAYS TRIANGULATED WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND THE CONGRESS AS HE ONCE PUT IT, HIS JOB WAS TO TURN UP THE LIGHT ON THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SO THEY WOULD TURN UP THE HEAT ON CONGRESS.

SO WHAT WE DID WAS CONSTANTLY MANEUVERED CLINTON ON ISSUES WHERE, IF HE WANTED TO GET RE-ELECTED, HE HAD TO GO ALONG WITH US.

AND THEN WE SPENT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TIME TOGETHER.

HE AND I WERE ABOUT THE SAME AGE.

WE WERE BOTH KIND OF NATURAL GRADUATE STUDENTS.

SO WE LIKED GETTING TOGETHER AND JUST TALKING.

AND WE SPENT 35 DAYS TOGETHER NEGOTIATING THE BALANCED BUDGET.

WELL, YOU GET A FEEL FOR EACH OTHER.

AND I HAD A VERY SIMPLE MOTTO.

THINK OF IT AS A BOX.

ONE SIDE OF THE BOX WAS WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAD TO HAVE.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOX IS WHAT HE COULDN'T GIVE UP.

ONE SIDE OF THE BOX WAS WHAT I HAD TO HAVE.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOX IS WHAT I COULDN'T GIVE UP.

AWE NOW IN BETWEEN THOSE FOUR SIDES, YOU COULD FIND A DEAL.

AND SO WE WOULD HAVE TO TALK A WHILE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE SIDES OF THE BOX WERE AND THEN YOU COULD COME TO AN AGREEMENT.

>> Mr. SPEAKER, I MUST TELL YOU, AMERICA IS CRAVING FOR THAT RIGHT NOW.

THEY REALLY ARE.

THAT TYPE OF LEADERSHIP.

AND IT'S TALKING ABOUT BENDING.

AND IT SEEMS LIKE POLITICS HAVE SUCH AN EXTREME.

BEFORE WE GET TO ONE OF MY OTHER QUESTIONS, I WANT TO ASK YOU THIS ONE.

ONE THING THAT DIDN'T GET ACCOMPLISHED IS SOMETHING SEEMS TO BE PART OF THE POPULAR SENTIMENT NOW IS TERM LIMITS.

WHAT IS YOUR THOUGHT ON TERM LIMITS OVERALL AND TERM LIMITS FOR THE CONGRESS AND THE SENATE?

>> I DON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEM WITH TERM LIMITS IF THEY'RE LONG ENOUGH.

I WOULD SAY 12 YEARS, FOR EXAMPLE.

BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT STATES WHERE THEY'RE REALLY SHORT LIKE SIX YEARS OR EIGHT YEARS, YOU ARE REALLY TURNING A LOT OF POWER OVER TO THE BUREAUCRACY AND THE LOBBYISTS BECAUSE ALL TOO OFTEN, PARTICULARLY AT SIX YEARS, PEOPLE DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING.

LEGISLATING IS EXTRAORDINARILY COMPLICATED.

I HAVE BEEN A CONGRESSMAN FOR 16 YEARS BEFORE I BECAME SPEAKER.

AND I NEEDED THAT TIME TO REALLY THOROUGHLY UNDERSTAND WHAT IT TAKES TO LEAD A FREE PEOPLE AND TO GET THEM TO VOLUNTARILY WORK TOGETHER AS A TEAM.

>> I COULDN'T AGREE WITH YOU MORE ABOUT THAT.

LISTEN, BEFORE WE WRAP UP, I WANT TO TALK A LITTLE BIT.

IS THERE ANY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONTRACT WITH AMERICA THAT YOU CAN THINK OF?

SOMETHING THAT YOU DIDN'T FORESEE THAT MAY NOT BE GREAT OR SOMETHING THAT YOU COULD HAVE DONE BETTER WITH IT?

>> I WOULD SAY THAT THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE COULDN'T REALLY EXPLAIN TO OUR COLLEAGUES WHAT WE WERE DOING AT A DEEP ENOUGH LEVEL, YOU KNOW, I LOOKED BACK ON IT LATER.

REAGAN AND THATCHER AND I ALL HAD THE SAME PROBLEM.

WE WERE ALL ESSENTIALLY REVOLUTIONARIES.

WE WERE ALL TRYING TO PROFOUNDLY CHANGE WHAT WAS GOING ON.

AND IN ALL THREE CASES, WE FAILED TO SHIFT THE CULTURE OF OUR OWN PARTY.

WHEN REAGAN LEFT, GEORGE H. AND W. BUSH DIDN'T UNDERSTAND REAGANISM, WHEN THATCHER LEFT, HER SUCCESSOR DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THATCHERRISM.

AND WHEN I LEFT, NEITHER GEORGE W. NOR DENNY HASTERT UNDERSTOOD WHAT WE HAD DONE AND I HAVE OFTEN THOUGHT ABOUT HOW COULD-- CULTURES ARE VERY COMPLEX AND VERY DIFFICULT.

AND THE PARTY REVERTED TO THE NORM.

NOW WE ARE GOING TO SEE IN THE NEAR FUTURE, WHETHER OR NOT TRUMP CAN DO A BETTER JOB OF FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING THE PARTY THAN EITHER REAGAN OR THATCHER OR I DID.

>> SO HOW CAN WE-- HOW CAN YOU ACHIEVE THAT VERY, VERY ELUSIVE GOAL?

FIRST OF ALL, IS IT ACHIEVABLE?

AND IF IT IS, HOW CAN YOU COME TOGETHER AND FIX THAT ASPECT?

BECAUSE THAT IS ANOTHER THE PROBLEM WITH MODERN POLITICS.

>> I HAVE A VERY SIMPLE MODEL I LEARNED FROM THE U.S. ARMY.

LISTEN, LEARN, HELP AND LEAD.

MY ADVICE TO THE NEXT PRESIDENT IS YOU GOT TO LISTEN.

YOU CAN'T HAVE POPULAR SENTIMENT IF YOU DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO POPULAR SENTIMENT.

THAT REQUIRES LISTENING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

THE FOUNDING FATHERS DESIGNED A MACHINE SO INEFFICIENT THAT NO DICTATOR COULD MAKE IT WORK.

IT'S A BRILLIANT DESIGN.

THE SENATE IS ELECTED FOR SIX YEARS, THE HOUSE FOR TWO YEARS.

THE PRESIDENT FOR FOUR YEARS.

THE SUPREME COURT IS OFF TO ONE SIDE.

AND IT'S VERY, VERY HARD TO GET IT TO WORK.

AND THAT'S HOW IT WAS DESIGNED.

SO I ALWAYS TELL PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TO BE UNBELIEVABLY PATIENT.

WE TALKED ABOUT CHEERFUL PERSISTENCE.

YOU HAD TO RECOGNIZE THAT ANYTHING WORTH DOING TOOK TIME AND EFFORT.

YOU HAD TO REACH OUT TO OTHER PEOPLE, AND YOU HAD TO BUILD A TEAM.

AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE FOUNDING FATHERS WANTED.

>> Mr. SPEAKER, YOU SOUND EXACTLY LIKE WHAT AMERICA WANTS TO HEAR RIGHT NOW AND I DEARLY HOPE AT SOME POINT WE DO GET TO WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

I REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT.

I WISH WE HAD MUCH MORE TIME.

I COULD TALK TO YOU FOREVER.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR COMING.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR COMING.

>> THANK YOU.

AGAIN, THE BOOK IS CALLED MARCH TO THE MAJORITY AND IS AVAILABLE ON AMAZON, BARNES AND NOBLE AND IN BOOKSTORES EVERYWHERE.

IN BOOKSTORES EVERYWHERE.

CHECK IT OUT.

IT'S A GREAT READ.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ DID YOU KNOW THAT SOMETIMES, IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, LESS IS MORE?

WITH THE MILLIONS, OR NOW, BILLIONS BEING SPENT ON CAMPAIGN ADS AND APPEARANCES, IT SEEMS UNTHINKABLE.

BUT IN 1924, CALVIN COOLIDGE DID THE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A POLITICIAN.

HE KEPT HIS MOUTH SHUT!

HIS RUN FOR PRESIDENT WAS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS A "SILENT CAMPAIGN" DUE TO HIS NOTABLY LOW-KEY APPROACH.

IN FACT, HIS SLOGAN WAS "KEEP COOL WITH COOLIDGE," APPEALING TO VOTERS SEEKING STABILITY AFTER THE SCANDALS OF THE HARDING ADMINISTRATION.

HIS QUIET DEMEANOR LED TO A FAMOUS STORY: DURING A DINNER PARTY, A GUEST BET THAT HE COULD GET COOLIDGE TO SAY MORE THAN TWO WORDS THAT NIGHT.

COOLIDGE SIMPLY REPLIED, "YOU LOSE."

THAT WAS SILENT CAL FOR YA, AND HIS METHODS PROVED GENIUS: HE WON THE 1924 ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE.

SILENT CAMPAIGNS.

IF ONLY.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ YOUNG VOTERS ARE PARTICIPATING AT HISTORIC RATES IN RECENT ELECTIONS, WITH 55% OF THOSE AGES 18-29 CASTING BALLOTS IN 2020--THE HIGHEST SINCE 1972.

THEIR TURNOUT THIS YEAR IS CRUCIAL.

HOWEVER, UNDERSTANDING THIS DEMOGRAPHIC IS CHALLENGING; TRADITIONAL PHONE POLLING IS BECOMING LESS EFFECTIVE, AS MANY DON'T ANSWER UNKNOWN NUMBERS-OR EVEN THEIR PARENTS' NUMBERS, FOR THAT MATTER.

WHILE NEW POLLING METHODS ARE EMERGING, YOUNG VOTERS STILL ENGAGE AT LOWER RATES COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS.

SO THIS WEEK ON THE TRAPEZE, LET'S EXPLORE HOW POLLSTERS CAN ADAPT TO THIS TECH-SAVVY GENERATION AND FIND OUT WHAT INFLUENCES THEIR VOTING PREFERENCES.

HERE TO HELP US ARE POLITICAL CONSULTANT AND POLLSTER, JIM HOBART, AND SENIOR DIRECTOR AT EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING, MATT TAGLIA.

WELCOME, GENTLEMEN!

>> GREAT TO BE HERE.

>> HAPPY TO BE HERE.

>> SO, MATT, YOU ARE FROM BOSTON AND I WON'T TALK ABOUT THE YANKEES LOSS LAST NIGHT, BUT DO I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE RACE.

THE POLLING FOR YOUNGER GENERATION AND TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WHAT THEY'RE THINKING IS REALLY IMPORTANT.

SO I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT WITH BOTH OF YOU AND THEN JUST TO SET THE TABLE, FOLLOW UP WITH HOW IMPACTFUL THAT SEGMENT OF THE VOTING BLOCK IS GOING TO BE IN THIS ELECTION.

SO, MATT, TELL US, HOW HARD IS IT NOW TO TRY TO GET SOME ACCURATE DATA, THE TRENDS AND PREFERENCES FOR THE 18-29 YEAR AGE GROUP.

>> WELL, IN SHORT, IT'S HARDER THAN EVER.

YOU KNOW, AS YOU NOTED, IT'S RARE THAT YOUNG PEOPLE WANT TO PICK UP THE PHONE FOR SOMEONE THAT THEY KNOW, LET ALONE COMPLETE STRANGERS WHO WANT TO TAKE 20 MINUTES OF THEIR TIME TO ANSWER A SURVEY.

SO, YOU KNOW, WE ARE, OUR PHILOSOPHY IS TO MEET FOLKS WHERE THEY ARE AND THAT PRIMARILY MEANS TEXT MESSAGING.

SO THESE FOLKS WILL RECEIVE A LINK THAT TAKES THEM TO THE SURVEY ONLINE.

AND THEN WE ALSO USE SOMETHING CALLED AN ONLINE PANEL.

AND SO THESE ARE RESPONDENTS WHO ARE PAID TO SHARE THEIR OPINION WITH US.

WE KNOW CERTAIN THINGS ABOUT THEM AND THEIR DEMOGRAPHIC.

WE ASSIGN QUOTAS TO HIT MINIMUMS FOR THESE VOTERS.

SO, YOU KNOW, FRANKLY, IT'S ONE OF THE ONLY WAYS WE CAN REACH THOSE FOLKS.

AND THAT EXTENDS AND IS TRUE FOR OTHER HARD TO REACH GROUPS LIKE MINORITY VOTERS AS WELL.

>> SO, JIM, HOW ACCURATE OR HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU IN THE DATA THAT YOU RECEIVE FROM THIS AGE GROUP IN THE POLLING AND HOW ACCURATE DO YOU THINK IT IS WITH THAT DATA?

>> I THINK THAT WHAT WE LIKE TO SEE IS LARGER SAMPLE SIZES WITH THE 18-29 OR 18-34 YEARS OLD.

THAT'S WHAT PRESENTS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE BECAUSE IN YOUR TYPICAL POLL, WHEN YOU ARE POLLING 600 FOLKS, YOU KNOW, YOU ARE ONLY GOING TO END UP WITH, LET'S SAY, N EQUALS 60 OR N EQUALS VOTERS OF 79.

THAT NUMBER CAN BOUNCE AROUND AND THAT'S WHERE YOU SEE THE QUOTE UNQUOTE SHOCK POLLS WHERE TRUMP IS WINNING YOUNGER VOTERS.

I DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS NECESSARILY THE CASE.

I DO THINK THAT THE YOUNGER VOTERS POST BIDEN DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE HAS MOVED BACK TO DEMOCRATS BUT DEALING WITH THE SMALLER SAMPLE SIZES, YOU CAN HAVE THAT TYPE OF MOVEMENT BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT INTERVIEWING THAT MANY FOLKS.

SO WHAT WE LIKE TO DO IS DO WHAT WE CALL MERGE DATA WHERE WE TAKE A LOOK AT SEVERAL OF OUR NATIONAL SURVEYS.

IF WE ARE WORKING IN THE STATE, SEVERAL OF SURVEYS THAT WE HAVE CONDUCTED IN THAT STATE AND THAT TENDS TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER READ OF WHERE THE 18-29 OR 18-34 YEAR OLDS ACTUALLY ARE.

>> I'M GOING TO SWITCH GEARS AND TALK ABOUT HOW IMPACTFUL THIS AGE GROUP IS GOING TO BE IN THIS ELECTION.

THEY SEEM MOTIVATED BUT UNLIKE 1972, WHEN EVERYBODY WAS MOTIVATED AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT, THE YOUNGER VOTERS, IT WAS EASY TO SEE WHY THEY TURNED OUT IN BIG NUMBERS.

THEY'RE GOING THE TURN OUT IN BIG NUMBERS THIS TIME BUT HOW IMPACTFUL WILL THEY BE IN THE ELECTION OVERALL SOME.

>> THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

I THINK THAT IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT THERE IS-- THERE HAS BEEN A BOOST IN ENTHUSIASM AMONG THESE YOUNG VOTERS ONCE KAMALA HARRIS TOOK BIDEN'S PLACE ON THE TICKET.

WE ARE NOT SEEING TOO MUCH INDICATIONS OTHERWISE.

WE HAVE TESTED THEIR ENTHUSIASM.

THEY SEEM ENTHUSIASTIC BUT AGAIN IT'S JUST HARD TO TELL IF YOU LOOK AT EARLY VOTING NUMBERS RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE A LITTLINGS BIT DOWN FOR YOUNGER VOTERS THAN THEY WERE IN 2020.

BUT OVERALL, I THINK THAT WE ARE LOOKING THE AT A VERY SIMILAR TO TURNOUT 2020 AND SHOULD EXPECT THAT FROM THE 18-29 AND THEN SOME OF THOSE FOLKS WHO ARE IN THEIR 30S AS WELL.

>> ANYTHING YOU WANT TO ADD TO THAT?

>> NO, I THINK THAT'S CERTAINLY THE CASE.

AND LOOK, TRYING TO DETERMINE TURNOUT, I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY WHY MATT AND I BOTH DON'T HAVE ANY HAIR ANYMORE.

IT'S THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR POLLSTERS, AND WE ARE DOING OUR BEST TO APPROXIMATE IT, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE ULTIMATELY LEFT UP TO WHAT THE WHIMS OF THE VOTERS ACTUALLY ARE.

>> JIM, QUICKLY AND I'LL GO BACK TO MATT, WHICH WAY IS THIS GROUP TRENDING?

DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA?

ARE THEY GOING TOWARDS HARRIS OR TRUMP MORE?

>> I DO THINK WE HAVE SEEN A MOVE TOWARDS HARRIS SINCE SHE GOT IN THE RACE.

THERE WAS SUCH A DESIRE ON THE PART REALLY OF ALL VOTERS BUT CERTAINLY YOUNGER VOTERS, FOR JUST ANY OTHER CHOICE OTHER THAN TRUMP VERSUS BIDEN SO WHEN THEY WERE PROVIDED WITH THAT CHOICE, IT GAVE THEM A LITTLE BOOST OF ENTHUSIASM, LESS ABOUT ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR ABOUT HARRIS, BUT JUST FOR THE FACT THAT WE DON'T HAVE TO PICK BETWEEN TWO AGED 75 PLUS-YEAR-OLD MEN.

IT HELPED SPUR MORE ENTHUSIASM FOR THEM TO VOTE THE WAY THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE, MORE TOWARDS DEMOCRATS.

>> MATT.

>> YEAH, I THINK THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN ITSELF HAS COURTED THESE VOTERS.

THE WAY WE SEE THE DATA, SHE MAY BE OVERPERFORMING BIDEN'S NUMBERS IN 2020 IN SOME OF THE STATES.

IF I'M A HARRIS CAMPAIGN, I WOULD EXPECT BIG THINGS FROM THE 18-29 AGE BRACT.

>> IS THERE A CLEAR FRONTRUN BETWEEN HARRIS AND TRUMP?

MATT, YOU GO FIRST?

>> NO.

IT IS TIED ACROSS THE SWING STATES MARGIN ERROR AND IN ALL OF THE POLLS, THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WHERE WE WOULD FEEL CONFIDENT THAT YOU KNOW, ONE CANDIDATE HAS A LEAD.

AND THAT'S BECAUSE IT'S OVER TIME.

I'LL LEAVE IT AT THAT.

>> JEREMY, 10 SECONDS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> NO SUCH THING AS ONE HANDED POLLSTER BECAUSE ONE HAND I CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR HARRIS AND ON THE OTHER I CAN MAKE THE CASE TORE TRUMP.

>> YOU SOUND LIKE A POLITICIAN.

>> THANKS TO BOTH OF YOU FOR YOUR TIME.

VERY INTERESTING.

AND THE YOUTH VOTE IS GOING TO BE IMPORTANT AND THEY'RE PAYING ATTENTION TO IT.

THANKS SO MUCH.

WE'LL HAVE BETTER CLARITY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME FOR SURE.

>> WE WILL ALL BE A LOT SMARTER, THANKS.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING US.

>> FOR SURE.

NOW LET'S HEAD TO THE CENTER OF POLICY, WASHINGTON D.C. WITH US NOW IS LAUREN MADDOX, SENIOR POLICY ADVISOR AT TOP NOTCH WASHINGTON LAW FIRM, HOLLAND AND KNIGHT, TO GIVE US A BRIEF ON WHAT'S HAPPENING NEXT WEEK IN WASHINGTON.

WELCOME AGAIN, LAUREN.

>> HEY, CONGRESSMAN, GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.

SO EVERYBODY IS HOLDING THEIR BREATH IN WASHINGTON.

AND WHILE WE HOPE TO KNOW, YOU KNOW, THE ELECTION RESULTS ON ELECTION NIGHT, WITH THE RISE IN THE NUMBER OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS AND DIFFERENT STATE RULES GOVERNING WHEN YOU CAN OPEN THE BLOTSZ AND WHEN THE RESULTS CAN BE ANNOUNCED, IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE REALLY KNOW WHICH RACES GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, ESPECIALLY THOSE RACES ON THE BUBBLE AND WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

IN THE MEANTIME THERE IS A LOT OF PREP WORK GOING TO BE HAPPENING NEXT WEEK IN ANTICIPATION OF MEMBERS COMING BACK, THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 11.

AND FRANKLY THEY'VE LEFT THEMSELVES A TON OF HOME WORK TO DO.

THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO THAT DISASTER RELIEF SUPPLEMENTAL TO TAKE CARE OF THOSE COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN DEVASTATED BY THE HURRICANES.

AND ALSO SOME WILDFIRES OUT WEST.

THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO THE ANNUAL DEFENSE POLICY BILL AND THE ANNUAL FUNDING BILLS AND THEY HAVE FIVE WEEKS TO GET IT DONE.

SOME OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ELECTION RESULTS BUT IT IS GOING TO BE CHAOTIC AS SOON AS THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE IN.

>> IT SEEMS LIKE ALL THE BILLS PERCOLATING, PERHAPS THE ONE THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF PASSING QUICKLY IS THE DISASTER RELIEF.

EVERYBODY AGREES WE NEED TO DO IT SO THAT SOUNDS LIKE THE BEST VEHICLE TO GET STUFF THROWN INTO THAT BILL AND GET STUFF PASSES THAT MIGHT NOT OTHERWISE GET PASSED.

IS THAT RIGHT.

>> EXACTLY RIGHT.

WE CALL THOSE MUST PASS BILLS.

IT'S USUALLY GOING TO BE-- DISASTER RELIEF BILLS ARE TYPICALLY DONE IN A BIPARTISAN FASHION.

IT COULD TURN INTO A CHRISTMAS TREE WITHIN WEEKS.

IT COULD ADD ON A NUMBER OF MUST PASS THINGS TO GET DONE BY THE CALENDAR YEAR, BUT AGAIN, THERE IS A LOT OF WORK THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SO IT'S GOING TO BE CHAOTIC FOR A WHILE.

>> SPEAKING OF CHAOS, IT SOUNDS LIKE THE ELBOWS ARE FLYING DOWN IN WASHINGTON BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL HOPING IF THEY GET IN LEADERSHIP AND THE WHITE HOUSE OR THE HOUSE OR THE SENATE, EVERYBODY IS STARTING TO JOCKEY FOR POSITIONS ALREADY AND THE ELBOWS ARE OUT AND GOT ANY LIGHT YOU WANT TO SHED ON THAT AND WHAT IS GOING ON?

>> THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.

I MEAN NOBODY IS MEASURING THE CURTAINS YET BUT THEY'RE CLOSE.

LIKE YOU SAID, THEY'RE JOCKEYING FOR POSITION AND EVERYBODY IS JUST WAITING TO SEE THE RESULTS.

AND A LOT OF THINGS WILL FALL INTO PLACE VERY QUICKLY ONCE THAT IS KNOWN WHO IS GOING TO BE IN CHARGE OF THE HOUSE, WHO IS GOING TO BE IN CHARGE OF THE SENATE.

AND THEN WHO IS GOING TAKE OVER THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE FEDERAL AGENCIES.

>> LAUREN, I'LL TELL YOU, I WAS ALWAYS MOST POPULAR WHEN PEOPLE RECORDED MY VOTE FOR LEADERSHIP.

I KNOW IT WELL.

AND I THANK YOU SO MUCH.

WE COULD TALK MUCH LONGER AS ALWAYS, BUT APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT AND LOOK FORWARD TO A VERY INTERESTING DISCUSSION NEXT WEEK AFTER THE ELECTION.

>> ME, TOO.

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

>> YOU TOO, MY FRIEND.

THANKS, LAUREN.

NOW IT'S TIME TO LEAVE 'EM LAUGHIN.

THERE'S NO ONE BETTER TO GO CLOWNING AROUND WITH IN THE POLITICAL CIRCUS THAN OUR RESIDENT CLOWN AND NATIONALLY RENOWNED COMEDIAN, MOODY MCCARTHY.

HEY MOODY!

>> I'M DONE GREAT, JOHN.

GREAT TO BE WITH YOU AGAIN, CONGRESSMAN.

THIS SHOW IS SUCH A THRILL AND AFTER OUR THIRD EPISODE AIRED, I GOT STOPPED ON THE STREET.

IT WAS SO EXCITING.

THEY WERE JUST ASKING DIRECTIONS FOR THE SUBWAY BUT IT'S EXCITING TO GET STOPPED ON THE STREET.

FOUR DAYS BEFORE ELECTION DAY AND THEY'RE TRYING TO REACH VOTERS ANY WAY THEY CAN.

- FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S APPEARANCE ON JOE ROGAN'S PODCAST HAS BEEN VIEWED 40 MILLION TIMES.

OVER 40 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE LISTENED OR WATCHED THIS.

HARD HITTING INTERVIEW.

HE PRESSED HIM ON DETAILS FOR HIS HEALTHCARE PLAN AND HE ASKED TRUMP WHY HE WATCHED WITH.

>> GEE ON JANUARY 6 WHEN 140 OFFICERS WERE ASSAULTED.

AND WE HAVE A CLIP OF IT RIGHT HERE.

I'M JUST KID CAN.

IT WAS A PUFF BALL INTERVIEW.

A COUPLE EIGHTH GRADERS TALKING ABOUT WHICH MMA FIGHTER WAS THE BEST.

NOW TO ROGUE GAUGHRAN DEFENSE THEY ONLY HAD THREE HOURS SO JANUARY 6 DIDN'T COME UP.

WE DID LEARN DURING THE INTERVIEW, I THINK TRUMP MIGHT HAVE A SECOND CAREER AND MIGHT BE GOOD AT IT.

WE DO HAVE A CLIP OF THAT.

>> SUPER SENSITIVE TO VIBRATIONS AND SOUNDS.

>> THE WIND IS RUSHING, THE THINGS ARE BUFFALOING.

IT'S A VIBRATION AND IT TAKES NOISE.

AND YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS?

I WANT TO BE A WHILE PSYCHIATRIST.

IT DRIVES THE WHALES FRICKIN' CRAZY.

>> I THINK TRUMP WOULD BE A GREAT-- I THINK THE WHOLE COUNTRY COULD GET BEHIND THAT.

THE WHALES WOULD LISTEN TO HIM.

MAN, THIS GUY IS ONE OF US.

NOW, VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS MADE A HIGH PROFILE SPEECH.

SHE WENT TO THE SITE OF THE JANUARY 6 RALLY IN WASHINGTON D.C., THE INSURRECTIONEST TAILGATE AND VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS, SHE GOT A ROUND OF APPLAUSE.

I THINK SHE TAPPED INTO SOMETHING, SOMETHING I'VE NEVER SEEN A POLITICIAN BRING UP AND WE HAVE A CLIP OF THAT.

>> ON DAY ONE IF ELECTED, DONALD TRUMP WOULD WALK INTO THAT OFFICE WITH AN ENEMY'S LIST.

WHEN ELECTED, I WILL WALK IN WITH A TO-DO LIST.

>> ANYONE WHO CAN HELP ME WITH MY TO-DO LIST HAS MY VOTE.

IF ONE OF THE CANDIDATES CAN LEP ME PLAN MY WIFE'S 50th BIRTHDAY PARTY, I WOULD BE SO GRATEFUL.

>> CONGRESSMAN, IT WOULD BE ANTITHETICAL FOR ME TO ENDORSE A CANDIDATE.

BUT I DO HAVE TO TELL YOU EXPERIENCE HAS CHANGED ME.

YESTERDAY I DROPPED OFF MY LITTLE GIRLS AT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

WE GO TO PUBLIC ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

DROP THEM OFF.

I GO TO PICK THEM UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE SCHOOL TURNED THEM INTO BOYS.

NOW HAVE I TWO BOYS AND THEY'RE NOT AS BRIGHT, RIGHT.

I COULD HANDLE THAT.

I'M WALKING HOME.

WE GET HOME IN OUR BACKYARD, A STRANGER IS EATING OUR DOG.

I USED TO HAVE BRIGHT DAUGHTERS.

I GOT TWO DUMB SONS AND NO DOG.

I NEED A CANDIDATE THAT CAN PROTECT ME FROM THESE REAL THREATS.

>> THANKS, MOODY.

>> THIS HAS BEEN GREAT.

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AND REMEMBER, IN THE CIRCUS THAT IS POLITICS, THERE'S ALWAYS A BALANCING ACT.